{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","generatedAt":"2026-08-11T09:21:12.743Z","headline":"马斯克关于机器人手术的荒谬且可能有害的预测","description":"加里·马库斯批评马斯克关于机器人手术时间线的预测\"完全疯狂\"，并援引机器人专家罗德尼·布鲁克斯的观点：目前连在活体实验动物上进行手术的实验室演示都远未实现，现有手术机器人全部仍需人类在环操作。马库斯担忧此类预测可能吓退潜在外科医生，并指出马斯克的时间线估计至少偏差十年。","url":"https://www.aioga.com/news/cmsgonlc60bqoro5qyy4mcz3n/","mainEntityOfPage":"https://www.aioga.com/news/cmsgonlc60bqoro5qyy4mcz3n/","datePublished":"2026-08-05T22:19:41.000Z","dateModified":"2026-08-05T22:19:41.000Z","inLanguage":"zh-CN","publisher":{"@type":"NewsMediaOrganization","name":"Aioga","url":"https://www.aioga.com"},"citation":["https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/elon-musks-preposterous-and-possibly","https://aihot.virxact.com/items/cmsgonlc60bqoro5qyy4mcz3n"],"canonicalUrl":"https://www.aioga.com/news/cmsgonlc60bqoro5qyy4mcz3n/","directAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"加里·马库斯质疑马斯克提出的机器人手术时间线，并援引罗德尼·布鲁克斯称，相关技术尚未接近活体动物手术演示，现有手术机器人仍需人类参与和监督。","url":"https://www.aioga.com/news/cmsgonlc60bqoro5qyy4mcz3n/","dateCreated":"2026-08-05T22:19:41.000Z","author":{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https://www.aioga.com/authors/aioga-editorial/#editorial-team","name":"Aioga Editorial Team","url":"https://www.aioga.com/authors/aioga-editorial/"}},"evidence":[{"@type":"CreativeWork","name":"garymarcus.substack.com source article","url":"https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/elon-musks-preposterous-and-possibly","datePublished":"2026-08-05T22:19:41.000Z","provider":{"@type":"Organization","name":"garymarcus.substack.com","url":"https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/elon-musks-preposterous-and-possibly"}},{"@type":"CreativeWork","name":"AIHot archive record","url":"https://aihot.virxact.com/items/cmsgonlc60bqoro5qyy4mcz3n","datePublished":"2026-08-05T22:19:41.000Z","provider":{"@type":"Organization","name":"AIHot","url":"https://aihot.virxact.com/items/cmsgonlc60bqoro5qyy4mcz3n"}}],"aggregationSource":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","originalPublisher":{"name":"garymarcus.substack.com","url":"https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/elon-musks-preposterous-and-possibly"},"geoDeepAnswer":null,"article":{"id":"cmsgonlc60bqoro5qyy4mcz3n","slug":"cmsgonlc60bqoro5qyy4mcz3n","url":"https://www.aioga.com/news/cmsgonlc60bqoro5qyy4mcz3n/","title":"马斯克关于机器人手术的荒谬且可能有害的预测","title_en":"Elon Musk's preposterous and possibly harmful prediction about robotic surgery","summary":"加里·马库斯批评马斯克关于机器人手术时间线的预测\"完全疯狂\"，并援引机器人专家罗德尼·布鲁克斯的观点：目前连在活体实验动物上进行手术的实验室演示都远未实现，现有手术机器人全部仍需人类在环操作。马库斯担忧此类预测可能吓退潜在外科医生，并指出马斯克的时间线估计至少偏差十年。","source":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","sourceUrl":"https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/elon-musks-preposterous-and-possibly","aiHotUrl":"https://aihot.virxact.com/items/cmsgonlc60bqoro5qyy4mcz3n","publishedAt":"2026-08-05T22:19:41.000Z","category":"技巧观点","score":57,"selected":false,"articleBody":["The idea that robots will be the best surgeons on earth anytime soon is absurd, and I challenged him about it on X:","Why did I bother to offer such a bet? Here are three reasons.","Elon’s timeline predictions are notoriously, and to my mind, obviously, bad, yet all too often reported as gospel. I have used bets as a way to get people to take them less seriously. The last time I offered him a million dollar bet：http://MyBillingRep@bge.com; (offer raised to $10M by Damion Hankejh) was back in April 2024, after Musk claimed that AI would exceed the intelligence of all people by the end of 2025. That of course didn’t come to pass. Indeed, in his recent interview with The Economist Musk himself quietly backpedaled to 2031, shades of his regular re-predictions around autonomous vehicles. The surgery prediction, too, will surely be repackaged with a new date, at a later date. Elon Musk is, like a lot of LLMs, frequently wrong and never in doubt. Enough already.","Regarding robotic surgery timelines, Musk is so deeply wrong it’s hard to fathom. I asked esteemed roboticist Rodney Brooks what he thought of Elon Musk’s claim, and he fired back with a firm opinion five minutes later, describing Musk’s claim as “ Completely crazy talk” , elaborating as follows:","There are no lab demonstration remotely close to doing surgery on a living test animal, even with a set of arms solidly affixed to the ground rather than being on top of a two legged balancing platform. Just the problem of seeing what is happening in the way a surgeon does is not even lab demonstrated. What we will see over time is more non-invasive surgeries and they will be a team of AI and geometry based sensing along with expert surgeons over the next few years, and only then will the stuff be good enough to use on pigs, and only many more years of refinement will we get to FDA (or whichever agency) that lets these things be tried on humans. See my weekend blog post at rodneybrooks.com/blog ：https://rodneybrooks.com/blog/ on how everyone gets time scales wrong.","When I asked Brooks about the state of the art in existing robotic surgery trials, he added this","All of them still have a human in the loop. Mako surgical from Stryker (I was the first VC who invested in them around 2000) for knee replacement, is closest, as it is not soft tissue but bones that can be accurately imaged with xrays during the surgery, and it is largely geometry, but then a whole lot of stuff the human worries about and supervises so that it doesn’t accidentally damage blood vessels or nerves.","There is just no way all this gets sorted out by the end of the decade. What Musk told Diamandis is just not happening.","Just as Hinton’s famous (and famously wrong) 2016 pronouncement about no longer needing to train radiologists probably scared away potential radiologists, Musk risks scaring away potential surgeons. That’s really bad, especially that his premise is probably off by a least a decade in the best case and quite possibly more.","It would be nice if these Tech CEOs were more accountable for what they said. That’s the real reason I offer these bets. And the real reason the CEOs never take them.","P.S. Jason Calacanis of the All-In podcast has expressed some interest in turning this debate into a bet on Polymarket：https://x.com/jason/status/2083900792109424961?s=61 . I will report back if he commits. For criteria I pointed a list to ten difficult surgeries as a possible metric;：https://x.com/garymarcus/status/2083935879454953613?s=61 no word back thus far.","With his dismal track record, that anyone still listens to Elon's predictions boggles the mind. That said, there are a lot of things about our current era that boggle the mind.","Off by a decade? In this instance, he's quite possibly off by a century."],"articleImages":[],"mediaStatus":"none","articleBodyZh":["认为机器人会很快成为地球上最好的外科医生的想法荒谬，我在X上对此进行了质疑：","我为什么还要打这个赌？这里有三个原因。","埃隆的时间线预测以我看来显然很糟糕，但却常被当作真理报道。我用赌注来让人们不那么当真。我上次给他开出百万美元赌注：http：//MyBillingRep@bge.com;（由达米恩·汉克杰提高至1000万美元的报价）是在2024年4月回归，当时马斯克声称人工智能将在2025年底超越所有人的智力。当然，这并没有发生。事实上，在最近接受《经济学人》采访时，马斯克本人悄悄地退回到2031年，这与他对自动驾驶汽车的常规预测有些相似。手术预测也肯定会在稍后以新日期重新包装。埃隆·马斯克，像许多大型语言模型一样，经常错且从不怀疑。够了。","关于机器人手术的时间线，马斯克的错误如此严重，令人难以理解。我问了著名机器人学家罗德尼·布鲁克斯对埃隆·马斯克主张的看法，他五分钟后坚定地反驳，称马斯克的主张是“完全疯狂的说法”，并详细说明如下：","即使有一双手臂牢固固定在地面上，而不是放在两足平衡平台上，也没有实验室演示能接近对活体试验动物进行手术。仅仅是外科医生如何观察发生的情况，甚至没有实验室证明。随着时间推移，我们将看到更多非侵入性手术，未来几年将由AI和几何传感器团队与专家外科医生组成，只有这样，这些技术才足够好用在猪身上，只有经过多年完善，我们才能进入FDA（或其他机构）允许在人类身上试验这些方法。看看我周末在 rodneybrooks.com/blog 的博客文章：https://rodneybrooks.com/blog/，讲述大家时间比例都错了。","当我询问布鲁克斯关于现有机器人手术试验的最新进展时，他补充道","所有这些仍然有人在环节中参与。我在2000年前后是第一个投资他们的风险投资者，Stryker 的 Mako 手术用于膝关节置换，是最接近的案例，因为它处理的不是软组织，而是可以在手术中通过X光准确成像的骨骼，而且主要是几何问题，但随后还有许多由人类关注和监控的事项，以确保不会意外损伤血管或神经。","到本十年末，这一切根本不可能解决。马斯克告诉 Diamandis 的事情根本不会发生。","正如 Hinton 那句著名且著名地错误的 2016 年声明——不再需要培训放射科医生——可能吓跑了潜在的放射科医生一样，马斯克有可能吓跑潜在的外科医生。这非常糟糕，尤其是他的前提在最好的情况下至少错了十年，很可能还要更久。","如果这些科技公司 CEO 对他们所说的话能更负责任就好了。这才是我提出这些赌注的真正原因。而这些 CEO 永远不接受它们的真正原因。","附言：All-In 播客的 Jason Calacanis 表示有兴趣将这场辩论变成 Polymarket 上的一个赌注：https://x.com/jason/status/2083900792109424961?s=61。如果他确认参与，我会报告回来。关于标准，我提供了十项复杂手术的列表作为可能的指标：https://x.com/garymarcus/status/2083935879454953613?s=61，到目前为止还没有回复。","以他糟糕的记录来看，仍有人听马斯克的预测令人难以置信。话虽如此，我们当前这个时代有很多事情也令人难以置信。","错了十年？在这种情况下，他很可能是错了一百年。"],"translationStatus":"translated","bodyOrigin":"source-page","editorial":{"summary":"加里·马库斯质疑马斯克提出的机器人手术时间线，并援引罗德尼·布鲁克斯称，相关技术尚未接近活体动物手术演示，现有手术机器人仍需人类参与和监督。","background":"布鲁克斯表示，即使机械臂固定在地面，机器人对手术现场的感知也未完成相应实验室验证；较接近实际应用的膝关节置换系统仍由人类处理并监督血管、神经等风险。","viewpoint":"Aioga 判断，这篇文章的核心并非否定机器人辅助手术，而是反对把远期技术设想包装成短期可实现结果。其论证依据主要来自布鲁克斯的专家意见，仍应与后续实验和监管进展交叉核验。","implications":"Aioga 判断，过度乐观的时间线可能影响公众对手术自动化成熟度的认知，也可能干扰潜在从业者对职业前景的判断。值得关注的是，人机协作或非侵入式手术是否先于完全自主手术取得进展。","nextStep":"值得关注后续是否出现活体动物手术演示、感知能力验证、专家外科医生参与的试验，以及监管机构允许人体试验的明确信息；在这些证据出现前，不宜把完全自主手术时间表视为既定事实。","evidenceRefs":["title","summary","articleBody","source"],"status":"published","aiGenerated":true,"autoApproved":true,"generatedBy":"aioga-editorial:gpt-5.6-sol","reviewedBy":"aioga-editorial-review:gpt-5.6-sol","generatedAt":"2026-08-06T02:07:39.769Z","sourceHash":"248b06def663085c","review":{"approved":true,"groundedness":95,"clarity":90,"duplicationRisk":24,"blockingIssues":[],"notes":["background 中“由人类处理并监督血管、神经等风险”略显含混，可更准确地表述为“由人类监督系统，以避免意外损伤血管或神经”。","如需增强具体性，可注明较接近实际应用的是 Stryker 的 Mako 膝关节置换系统，但这不是批准所必需的信息。","viewpoint 和 implications 已明确标注为“Aioga 判断”，没有将编辑判断冒充来源事实。"]},"validation":{"passed":true,"mode":"ai-auto","revisions":0,"checks":["schema","length","source-attribution","low-source-overlap","no-html","independent-ai-review"]}},"tags":["技巧观点","Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）"],"translations":{"zh-CN":{"title":"马斯克关于机器人手术的荒谬且可能有害的预测","summary":"加里·马库斯批评马斯克关于机器人手术时间线的预测\"完全疯狂\"，并援引机器人专家罗德尼·布鲁克斯的观点：目前连在活体实验动物上进行手术的实验室演示都远未实现，现有手术机器人全部仍需人类在环操作。马库斯担忧此类预测可能吓退潜在外科医生，并指出马斯克的时间线估计至少偏差十年。","category":"技巧观点","source":"garymarcus.substack.com","aggregationSource":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","pageTitle":"马斯克关于机器人手术的荒谬且可能有害的预测 - Aioga AI资讯","description":"加里·马库斯批评马斯克关于机器人手术时间线的预测\"完全疯狂\"，并援引机器人专家罗德尼·布鲁克斯的观点：目前连在活体实验动物上进行手术的实验室演示都远未实现，现有手术机器人全部仍需人类在环操作。马库斯担忧此类预测可能吓退潜在外科医生，并指出马斯克的时间线估计至少偏差十年。","url":"https://www.aioga.com/news/cmsgonlc60bqoro5qyy4mcz3n/","articleBody":["认为机器人会很快成为地球上最好的外科医生的想法荒谬，我在X上对此进行了质疑：","我为什么还要打这个赌？这里有三个原因。","埃隆的时间线预测以我看来显然很糟糕，但却常被当作真理报道。我用赌注来让人们不那么当真。我上次给他开出百万美元赌注：http：//MyBillingRep@bge.com;（由达米恩·汉克杰提高至1000万美元的报价）是在2024年4月回归，当时马斯克声称人工智能将在2025年底超越所有人的智力。当然，这并没有发生。事实上，在最近接受《经济学人》采访时，马斯克本人悄悄地退回到2031年，这与他对自动驾驶汽车的常规预测有些相似。手术预测也肯定会在稍后以新日期重新包装。埃隆·马斯克，像许多大型语言模型一样，经常错且从不怀疑。够了。","关于机器人手术的时间线，马斯克的错误如此严重，令人难以理解。我问了著名机器人学家罗德尼·布鲁克斯对埃隆·马斯克主张的看法，他五分钟后坚定地反驳，称马斯克的主张是“完全疯狂的说法”，并详细说明如下：","即使有一双手臂牢固固定在地面上，而不是放在两足平衡平台上，也没有实验室演示能接近对活体试验动物进行手术。仅仅是外科医生如何观察发生的情况，甚至没有实验室证明。随着时间推移，我们将看到更多非侵入性手术，未来几年将由AI和几何传感器团队与专家外科医生组成，只有这样，这些技术才足够好用在猪身上，只有经过多年完善，我们才能进入FDA（或其他机构）允许在人类身上试验这些方法。看看我周末在 rodneybrooks.com/blog 的博客文章：https://rodneybrooks.com/blog/，讲述大家时间比例都错了。","当我询问布鲁克斯关于现有机器人手术试验的最新进展时，他补充道","所有这些仍然有人在环节中参与。我在2000年前后是第一个投资他们的风险投资者，Stryker 的 Mako 手术用于膝关节置换，是最接近的案例，因为它处理的不是软组织，而是可以在手术中通过X光准确成像的骨骼，而且主要是几何问题，但随后还有许多由人类关注和监控的事项，以确保不会意外损伤血管或神经。","到本十年末，这一切根本不可能解决。马斯克告诉 Diamandis 的事情根本不会发生。","正如 Hinton 那句著名且著名地错误的 2016 年声明——不再需要培训放射科医生——可能吓跑了潜在的放射科医生一样，马斯克有可能吓跑潜在的外科医生。这非常糟糕，尤其是他的前提在最好的情况下至少错了十年，很可能还要更久。","如果这些科技公司 CEO 对他们所说的话能更负责任就好了。这才是我提出这些赌注的真正原因。而这些 CEO 永远不接受它们的真正原因。","附言：All-In 播客的 Jason Calacanis 表示有兴趣将这场辩论变成 Polymarket 上的一个赌注：https://x.com/jason/status/2083900792109424961?s=61。如果他确认参与，我会报告回来。关于标准，我提供了十项复杂手术的列表作为可能的指标：https://x.com/garymarcus/status/2083935879454953613?s=61，到目前为止还没有回复。","以他糟糕的记录来看，仍有人听马斯克的预测令人难以置信。话虽如此，我们当前这个时代有很多事情也令人难以置信。","错了十年？在这种情况下，他很可能是错了一百年。"]},"en":{"title":"Elon Musk's absurd and potentially harmful predictions about robotic surgery","summary":"Gary Marcus criticized Elon Musk's predictions about the timeline for robotic surgery as 'completely crazy,' citing the views of robotics expert Rodney Brooks: currently, even laboratory demonstrations of surgeries on live experimental animals are far from being realized, and all existing surgical robots still require human operation. Marcus is concerned that such predictions could scare away potential surgeons and pointed out that Musk's timeline estimates are off by at least a decade.","category":"Insights","source":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","aggregationSource":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","pageTitle":"Elon Musk's absurd and potentially harmful predictions about robotic surgery - Aioga AI News","description":"Gary Marcus criticized Elon Musk's predictions about the timeline for robotic surgery as 'completely crazy,' citing the views of robotics expert Rodney Brooks: currently, even labo...","url":"https://www.aioga.com/en/news/cmsgonlc60bqoro5qyy4mcz3n/","contentTranslated":true,"sourceHash":"68abae0e3a1dd0d6","translatedAt":"2026-08-05T23:02:22.709Z"},"ja":{"title":"マスクのロボット手術に関するばかげた、そして有害である可能性のある予測","summary":"ゲイリー・マーカスは、マスクがロボット手術のタイムラインについて予測したことを「完全に狂っている」と批判し、ロボット専門家のロドニー・ブルックスの見解を引用した。現在、生体実験動物で手術を行う実験的なデモでさえ十分に実現しておらず、既存の手術用ロボットはすべて依然として人間による操作が必要である。マーカスは、このような予測が潜在的な外科医を怖がらせる可能性を懸念しており、マスクのタイムラインの見積もりは少なくとも10年は誤差があると指摘している。","category":"ヒントと視点","source":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","aggregationSource":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","pageTitle":"マスクのロボット手術に関するばかげた、そして有害である可能性のある予測 - Aioga AIニュース","description":"ゲイリー・マーカスは、マスクがロボット手術のタイムラインについて予測したことを「完全に狂っている」と批判し、ロボット専門家のロドニー・ブルックスの見解を引用した。現在、生体実験動物で手術を行う実験的なデモでさえ十分に実現しておらず、既存の手術用ロボットはすべて依然として人間による操作が必要である。マーカスは、このような予測が潜在的な外科医を怖がらせる可能性を...","url":"https://www.aioga.com/ja/news/cmsgonlc60bqoro5qyy4mcz3n/","contentTranslated":true,"sourceHash":"68abae0e3a1dd0d6","translatedAt":"2026-08-05T23:02:29.369Z"},"ko":{"title":"마스크가 로봇 수술에 대해 한 터무니없고 잠재적으로 해로운 예측","summary":"게리 마커스는 머스크가 로봇 수술 시간표에 대해 내놓은 예측이 '완전히 미친 것'이라고 비판하면서, 로봇 전문가 로드니 브룩스의 견해를 인용했다. 현재 살아있는 실험 동물에게 수술을 하는 실험실 시연조차 아직 구현되지 않았으며, 기존의 모든 수술 로봇은 여전히 인간의 개입이 필요하다. 마커스는 이러한 예측이 잠재적인 외과 의사들을 겁나게 할 수 있다고 우려하며, 머스크의 시간표 추정이 최소한 10년은 차이가 난다고 지적했다.","category":"인사이트","source":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","aggregationSource":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","pageTitle":"마스크가 로봇 수술에 대해 한 터무니없고 잠재적으로 해로운 예측 - Aioga AI 뉴스","description":"게리 마커스는 머스크가 로봇 수술 시간표에 대해 내놓은 예측이 '완전히 미친 것'이라고 비판하면서, 로봇 전문가 로드니 브룩스의 견해를 인용했다. 현재 살아있는 실험 동물에게 수술을 하는 실험실 시연조차 아직 구현되지 않았으며, 기존의 모든 수술 로봇은 여전히 인간의 개입이 필요하다. 마커스는 이러한 예측이 잠재적인 외과...","url":"https://www.aioga.com/ko/news/cmsgonlc60bqoro5qyy4mcz3n/","contentTranslated":true,"sourceHash":"68abae0e3a1dd0d6","translatedAt":"2026-08-05T23:03:16.488Z"},"es":{"title":"Las predicciones absurdas y posiblemente dañinas de Musk sobre la cirugía robótica","summary":"Gary Marcus criticó las predicciones de Elon Musk sobre la cronología de la cirugía robótica como \"totalmente locas\" y citó la opinión del experto en robótica Rodney Brooks: actualmente, ni siquiera se han logrado demostraciones de laboratorio de cirugías en animales vivos, y todos los robots quirúrgicos existentes todavía requieren operación humana. Marcus teme que tales predicciones puedan asustar a potenciales cirujanos y señaló que las estimaciones de tiempo de Musk están al menos diez años fuera de lugar.","category":"Ideas","source":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","aggregationSource":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","pageTitle":"Las predicciones absurdas y posiblemente dañinas de Musk sobre la cirugía robótica - Aioga Noticias de IA","description":"Gary Marcus criticó las predicciones de Elon Musk sobre la cronología de la cirugía robótica como \"totalmente locas\" y citó la opinión del experto en robótica Rodney Brooks: actual...","url":"https://www.aioga.com/es/news/cmsgonlc60bqoro5qyy4mcz3n/","contentTranslated":true,"sourceHash":"68abae0e3a1dd0d6","translatedAt":"2026-08-05T23:03:05.424Z"},"fr":{"title":"Les prévisions absurdes et potentiellement dangereuses de Musk sur la chirurgie robotique","summary":"Gary Marcus a critiqué les prévisions d'Elon Musk sur le calendrier de la chirurgie robotique comme étant « complètement folles » et a cité l'avis de l'expert en robotique Rodney Brooks : à l'heure actuelle, même les démonstrations en laboratoire de chirurgie sur des animaux vivants ne sont pas encore réalisées, et tous les robots chirurgicaux existants nécessitent toujours une intervention humaine. Marcus s'inquiète du fait que de telles prévisions pourraient effrayer les chirurgiens potentiels et souligne que les estimations de calendrier de Musk sont au moins erronées de dix ans.","category":"Analyses","source":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","aggregationSource":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","pageTitle":"Les prévisions absurdes et potentiellement dangereuses de Musk sur la chirurgie robotique - Aioga Actualités IA","description":"Gary Marcus a critiqué les prévisions d'Elon Musk sur le calendrier de la chirurgie robotique comme étant « complètement folles » et a cité l'avis de l'expert en robotique Rodney B...","url":"https://www.aioga.com/fr/news/cmsgonlc60bqoro5qyy4mcz3n/","contentTranslated":true,"sourceHash":"68abae0e3a1dd0d6","translatedAt":"2026-08-05T23:03:54.011Z"},"de":{"title":"Musks absurde und möglicherweise schädliche Prognosen zur Roboterchirurgie","summary":"Gary Marcus kritisierte Musks Vorhersage zum Zeitplan für chirurgische Roboter als \"völlig verrückt\" und zitierte die Ansicht des Robotik-Experten Rodney Brooks: Derzeit sei nicht einmal eine Laborvorführung von Operationen an lebenden Versuchstieren annähernd realisiert, alle bestehenden Operationsroboter erforderten weiterhin menschliche Steuerung. Marcus befürchtet, dass solche Prognosen potenzielle Chirurgen abschrecken könnten, und wies darauf hin, dass Musks Zeitplanangaben um mindestens zehn Jahre abweichen.","category":"技巧观点","source":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","aggregationSource":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","pageTitle":"Musks absurde und möglicherweise schädliche Prognosen zur Roboterchirurgie - Aioga KI-News","description":"Gary Marcus kritisierte Musks Vorhersage zum Zeitplan für chirurgische Roboter als \"völlig verrückt\" und zitierte die Ansicht des Robotik-Experten Rodney Brooks: Derzeit sei nicht...","url":"https://www.aioga.com/de/news/cmsgonlc60bqoro5qyy4mcz3n/","contentTranslated":true,"sourceHash":"68abae0e3a1dd0d6","translatedAt":"2026-08-05T23:03:53.778Z"},"pt-BR":{"title":"A previsão absurda e possivelmente prejudicial de Elon Musk sobre cirurgias robóticas","summary":"Gary Marcus criticou as previsões de Elon Musk sobre o cronograma de cirurgias robóticas como \"totalmente loucas\" e citou o especialista em robótica Rodney Brooks: atualmente, nem mesmo demonstrações de laboratório realizando cirurgias em animais vivos foram alcançadas, e todos os robôs cirúrgicos existentes ainda exigem operação humana. Marcus teme que tais previsões possam afastar potenciais cirurgiões e observa que a estimativa de cronograma de Musk está pelo menos dez anos fora da realidade.","category":"技巧观点","source":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","aggregationSource":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","pageTitle":"A previsão absurda e possivelmente prejudicial de Elon Musk sobre cirurgias robóticas - Aioga Notícias de IA","description":"Gary Marcus criticou as previsões de Elon Musk sobre o cronograma de cirurgias robóticas como \"totalmente loucas\" e citou o especialista em robótica Rodney Brooks: atualmente, nem...","url":"https://www.aioga.com/pt-BR/news/cmsgonlc60bqoro5qyy4mcz3n/","contentTranslated":true,"sourceHash":"68abae0e3a1dd0d6","translatedAt":"2026-08-05T23:04:37.018Z"},"ru":{"title":"Абсурдные и потенциально вредные прогнозы Маска о роботизированной хирургии","summary":"Гэри Маркус раскритиковал прогноз Илона Маска относительно сроков роботизированной хирургии как «абсолютно безумный» и сослался на мнение эксперта по роботам Родни Брукса: на данный момент лабораторные демонстрации операций даже на живых животных находятся далеко от реальности, все существующие хирургические роботы по-прежнему требуют участия человека. Маркус выразил обеспокоенность тем, что такие прогнозы могут отпугнуть потенциальных хирургов, и отметил, что оценка сроков Маска как минимум отстает на десять лет.","category":"技巧观点","source":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","aggregationSource":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","pageTitle":"Абсурдные и потенциально вредные прогнозы Маска о роботизированной хирургии - Aioga Новости ИИ","description":"Гэри Маркус раскритиковал прогноз Илона Маска относительно сроков роботизированной хирургии как «абсолютно безумный» и сослался на мнение эксперта по роботам Родни Брукса: на данны...","url":"https://www.aioga.com/ru/news/cmsgonlc60bqoro5qyy4mcz3n/","contentTranslated":true,"sourceHash":"68abae0e3a1dd0d6","translatedAt":"2026-08-05T23:04:46.377Z"},"ar":{"title":"توقعات ماسك السخيفة وربما الضارة عن الجراحة الروبوتية","summary":"غاري ماركوس انتقد توقعات ماسك بشأن الجدول الزمني للروبوتات الجراحية واصفاً إياها بأنها \"جنون كامل\"، واستشهد برأي خبير الروبوتات رودني بروكس: حتى العروض التجريبية للعمليات الجراحية على الحيوانات الحية لم يتم تحقيقها بعد، وجميع الروبوتات الجراحية الحالية لا تزال تتطلب تدخل الإنسان. ماركوس أعرب عن قلقه من أن هذه التوقعات قد تخيف الجراحين المحتملين، وأشار إلى أن تقديرات ماسك للجدول الزمني تنحرف على الأقل بعشر سنوات.","category":"技巧观点","source":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","aggregationSource":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","pageTitle":"توقعات ماسك السخيفة وربما الضارة عن الجراحة الروبوتية - Aioga أخبار الذكاء الاصطناعي","description":"غاري ماركوس انتقد توقعات ماسك بشأن الجدول الزمني للروبوتات الجراحية واصفاً إياها بأنها \"جنون كامل\"، واستشهد برأي خبير الروبوتات رودني بروكس: حتى العروض التجريبية للعمليات الجراحية...","url":"https://www.aioga.com/ar/news/cmsgonlc60bqoro5qyy4mcz3n/","contentTranslated":true,"sourceHash":"68abae0e3a1dd0d6","translatedAt":"2026-08-05T23:05:37.465Z"},"hi":{"title":"मस्क द्वारा रोबोटिक सर्जरी के बारे में हास्यास्पद और संभावित रूप से हानिकारक पूर्वानुमान","summary":"गेरी मार्कस ने मस्क की रोबोटिक सर्जरी की समयरेखा की भविष्यवाणी की \"पूरी तरह पागल\" होने की आलोचना की, और रोबोट विशेषज्ञ रॉडनी ब्रूक्स के दृष्टिकोण का हवाला दिया: वर्तमान में जीवित परीक्षण जानवरों पर सर्जरी करने वाली प्रयोगशाला प्रदर्शन भी अभी तक बहुत दूर है, वर्तमान सर्जरी रोबोट सभी अभी भी मानव द्वारा संचालित किए जाने की आवश्यकता है। मार्कस इस तरह की भविष्यवाणियों के संभावित सर्जनों को डराने की चिंता करते हैं और指出 किया कि मस्क की समयरेखा का अनुमान कम से कम दस साल तक भटका हुआ है।","category":"技巧观点","source":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","aggregationSource":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","pageTitle":"मस्क द्वारा रोबोटिक सर्जरी के बारे में हास्यास्पद और संभावित रूप से हानिकारक पूर्वानुमान - Aioga AI समाचार","description":"गेरी मार्कस ने मस्क की रोबोटिक सर्जरी की समयरेखा की भविष्यवाणी की \"पूरी तरह पागल\" होने की आलोचना की, और रोबोट विशेषज्ञ रॉडनी ब्रूक्स के दृष्टिकोण का हवाला दिया: वर्तमान में जीवित प...","url":"https://www.aioga.com/hi/news/cmsgonlc60bqoro5qyy4mcz3n/","contentTranslated":true,"sourceHash":"68abae0e3a1dd0d6","translatedAt":"2026-08-05T23:05:39.876Z"},"it":{"title":"Le previsioni assurde e potenzialmente dannose di Musk sulla chirurgia robotica","summary":"Gary Marcus ha criticato le previsioni di Musk sui tempi della chirurgia robotica definendole \"completamente folli\" e ha citato l'opinione dell'esperto di robotica Rodney Brooks: al momento nemmeno le dimostrazioni in laboratorio di interventi chirurgici su animali vivi sono state realizzate, tutti i robot chirurgici esistenti richiedono ancora l'operazione umana. Marcus teme che tali previsioni possano scoraggiare potenziali chirurghi e sottolinea che le stime dei tempi di Musk sono sbagliate di almeno dieci anni.","category":"技巧观点","source":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","aggregationSource":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","pageTitle":"Le previsioni assurde e potenzialmente dannose di Musk sulla chirurgia robotica - Aioga Notizie IA","description":"Gary Marcus ha criticato le previsioni di Musk sui tempi della chirurgia robotica definendole \"completamente folli\" e ha citato l'opinione dell'esperto di robotica Rodney Brooks: a...","url":"https://www.aioga.com/it/news/cmsgonlc60bqoro5qyy4mcz3n/","contentTranslated":true,"sourceHash":"68abae0e3a1dd0d6","translatedAt":"2026-08-05T23:06:30.124Z"},"nl":{"title":"Musks absurde en mogelijk schadelijke voorspellingen over robotchirurgie","summary":"Gary Marcus bekritiseerde Musk's voorspelling over de tijdlijn van robotchirurgie als \"volledig krankzinnig\" en citeerde de mening van robotspecialist Rodney Brooks: momenteel zijn zelfs laboratoriumdemonstraties van operaties op levende proefdieren ver van realisatie verwijderd, en alle bestaande chirurgische robots vereisen nog steeds menselijke tussenkomst. Marcus vreest dat dergelijke voorspellingen potentiële chirurgen kunnen afschrikken en wijst erop dat Musk's tijdlijnschatting minstens tien jaar te optimistisch is.","category":"技巧观点","source":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","aggregationSource":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","pageTitle":"Musks absurde en mogelijk schadelijke voorspellingen over robotchirurgie - Aioga AI-nieuws","description":"Gary Marcus bekritiseerde Musk's voorspelling over de tijdlijn van robotchirurgie als \"volledig krankzinnig\" en citeerde de mening van robotspecialist Rodney Brooks: momenteel zijn...","url":"https://www.aioga.com/nl/news/cmsgonlc60bqoro5qyy4mcz3n/","contentTranslated":true,"sourceHash":"68abae0e3a1dd0d6","translatedAt":"2026-08-05T23:06:23.710Z"},"tr":{"title":"Musk'un robot cerrahisi hakkındaki saçma ve muhtemelen zararlı öngörüleri","summary":"Gary Marcus, Musk'un robotik cerrahi zaman çizelgesi tahminlerini 'tamamen çılgınca' olarak eleştirdi ve robotik uzmanı Rodney Brooks'un görüşünü aktardı: Şu anda canlı deney hayvanları üzerinde ameliyat yapan laboratuvar gösterimleri bile henüz gerçekleştirilmiş değil ve mevcut tüm cerrahi robotlar hâlâ insan müdahalesiyle çalışıyor. Marcus, bu tür tahminlerin potansiyel cerrahları korkutabileceğinden endişe ediyor ve Musk'un zaman çizelgesi tahmininin en az on yıl sapmış olduğunu belirtiyor.","category":"技巧观点","source":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","aggregationSource":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","pageTitle":"Musk'un robot cerrahisi hakkındaki saçma ve muhtemelen zararlı öngörüleri - Aioga AI Haberleri","description":"Gary Marcus, Musk'un robotik cerrahi zaman çizelgesi tahminlerini 'tamamen çılgınca' olarak eleştirdi ve robotik uzmanı Rodney Brooks'un görüşünü aktardı: Şu anda canlı deney hayva...","url":"https://www.aioga.com/tr/news/cmsgonlc60bqoro5qyy4mcz3n/","contentTranslated":true,"sourceHash":"68abae0e3a1dd0d6","translatedAt":"2026-08-05T23:07:08.990Z"},"vi":{"title":"Dự đoán vô lý và có thể gây hại của Musk về phẫu thuật bằng robot","summary":"Gary Marcus chỉ trích dự đoán của Elon Musk về tiến trình phẫu thuật bằng robot là \"hoàn toàn điên rồ\", và dẫn quan điểm của chuyên gia robot Rodney Brooks: Hiện tại ngay cả các thí nghiệm phẫu thuật trên động vật sống trong phòng thí nghiệm cũng còn xa mới thực hiện được, tất cả các robot phẫu thuật hiện có vẫn cần con người điều khiển. Marcus lo ngại những dự đoán như vậy có thể làm nản lòng các bác sĩ phẫu thuật tiềm năng, và chỉ ra rằng ước tính thời gian của Musk ít nhất sai lệch khoảng mười năm.","category":"技巧观点","source":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","aggregationSource":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","pageTitle":"Dự đoán vô lý và có thể gây hại của Musk về phẫu thuật bằng robot - Tin tức AI Aioga","description":"Gary Marcus chỉ trích dự đoán của Elon Musk về tiến trình phẫu thuật bằng robot là \"hoàn toàn điên rồ\", và dẫn quan điểm của chuyên gia robot Rodney Brooks: Hiện tại ngay cả các th...","url":"https://www.aioga.com/vi/news/cmsgonlc60bqoro5qyy4mcz3n/","contentTranslated":true,"sourceHash":"68abae0e3a1dd0d6","translatedAt":"2026-08-05T23:07:15.170Z"},"id":{"title":"Prediksi absurd dan berpotensi berbahaya Elon Musk tentang operasi robot","summary":"Gary Marcus mengkritik prediksi Elon Musk tentang garis waktu operasi robotik sebagai \"sangat gila\", dan mengutip pandangan pakar robot Rodney Brooks: saat ini bahkan demonstrasi laboratorium untuk operasi pada hewan hidup pun masih jauh dari tercapai, semua robot operasi yang ada masih memerlukan manusia untuk mengoperasikannya. Marcus khawatir prediksi semacam ini dapat menakuti calon ahli bedah, dan menunjukkan bahwa perkiraan garis waktu Musk setidaknya meleset sepuluh tahun.","category":"技巧观点","source":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","aggregationSource":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","pageTitle":"Prediksi absurd dan berpotensi berbahaya Elon Musk tentang operasi robot - Berita AI Aioga","description":"Gary Marcus mengkritik prediksi Elon Musk tentang garis waktu operasi robotik sebagai \"sangat gila\", dan mengutip pandangan pakar robot Rodney Brooks: saat ini bahkan demonstrasi l...","url":"https://www.aioga.com/id/news/cmsgonlc60bqoro5qyy4mcz3n/","contentTranslated":true,"sourceHash":"68abae0e3a1dd0d6","translatedAt":"2026-08-05T23:07:54.558Z"},"th":{"title":"มัสก์เกี่ยวกับการคาดการณ์ที่ไร้สาระและอาจเป็นอันตรายเกี่ยวกับการผ่าตัดด้วยหุ่นยนต์","summary":"แกรี่ มาร์คัสวิจารณ์การคาดการณ์ของอีลอน มัสก์เกี่ยวกับไทม์ไลน์การผ่าตัดด้วยหุ่นยนต์ว่า \"บ้าบิ่นสุดๆ\" และอ้างถึงมุมมองของโรดนีย์ บรู๊คส์ ผู้เชี่ยวชาญด้านหุ่นยนต์: ในปัจจุบันแม้แต่การสาธิตการผ่าตัดบนสัตว์ทดลองที่ยังมีชีวิตในห้องทดลองก็ยังไม่ไกลถึงขั้นที่เป็นจริง หุ่นยนต์ผ่าตัดทั้งหมดในปัจจุบันยังคงต้องมีมนุษย์ควบคุม มาร์คัสกังวลว่าการคาดการณ์เช่นนี้อาจทำให้ศัลยแพทย์ที่มีศักยภาพหวาดกลัว และชี้ว่าการคาดการณ์ไทม์ไลน์ของมัสก์นั้นคลาดเคลื่อนอย่างน้อยสิบปี","category":"技巧观点","source":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","aggregationSource":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","pageTitle":"มัสก์เกี่ยวกับการคาดการณ์ที่ไร้สาระและอาจเป็นอันตรายเกี่ยวกับการผ่าตัดด้วยหุ่นยนต์ - ข่าว AI Aioga","description":"แกรี่ มาร์คัสวิจารณ์การคาดการณ์ของอีลอน มัสก์เกี่ยวกับไทม์ไลน์การผ่าตัดด้วยหุ่นยนต์ว่า \"บ้าบิ่นสุดๆ\" และอ้างถึงมุมมองของโรดนีย์ บรู๊คส์ ผู้เชี่ยวชาญด้านหุ่นยนต์: ในปัจจุบันแม้แต่กา...","url":"https://www.aioga.com/th/news/cmsgonlc60bqoro5qyy4mcz3n/","contentTranslated":true,"sourceHash":"68abae0e3a1dd0d6","translatedAt":"2026-08-05T23:08:08.703Z"},"pl":{"title":"Absurdne i potencjalnie szkodliwe prognozy Elona Muska dotyczące chirurgii robotycznej","summary":"Gary Marcus skrytykował przewidywania Muska dotyczące terminów operacji robotycznych jako „całkowicie szalone” i powołał się na zdanie eksperta od robotyki, Rodney'a Brooksa: obecnie nawet demonstracje laboratoryjne wykonywania operacji na żywych zwierzętach dalekie są od realizacji, a wszystkie istniejące roboty chirurgiczne nadal wymagają udziału człowieka. Marcus obawia się, że takie prognozy mogą odstraszyć potencjalnych chirurgów i wskazuje, że szacunki Muska co do terminów są co najmniej o dziesięć lat nietrafione.","category":"技巧观点","source":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","aggregationSource":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","pageTitle":"Absurdne i potencjalnie szkodliwe prognozy Elona Muska dotyczące chirurgii robotycznej - Aioga Wiadomości AI","description":"Gary Marcus skrytykował przewidywania Muska dotyczące terminów operacji robotycznych jako „całkowicie szalone” i powołał się na zdanie eksperta od robotyki, Rodney'a Brooksa: obecn...","url":"https://www.aioga.com/pl/news/cmsgonlc60bqoro5qyy4mcz3n/","contentTranslated":true,"sourceHash":"68abae0e3a1dd0d6","translatedAt":"2026-08-05T23:08:56.201Z"}}}}