{"@context":"https://schema.org","@type":"NewsArticle","generatedAt":"2026-09-21T10:01:00.320Z","headline":"Gary Marcus 批评 Elon Musk 反复推迟兑现的 AI 预测且媒体不加质疑","description":"Gary Marcus 撰文指出，Elon Musk 在 2024 年 4 月预测 2025 年底将出现比任何单个人类更聪明的 AI，如今只是把日期悄悄推迟到 2027 年，而 Marcus 曾两次提出百万美元赌注均未获回应。","url":"https://www.aioga.com/news/cmtkjuksu03rrroll5lue2bad/","mainEntityOfPage":"https://www.aioga.com/news/cmtkjuksu03rrroll5lue2bad/","datePublished":"2026-09-02T20:13:32.000Z","dateModified":"2026-09-02T20:13:32.000Z","inLanguage":"zh-CN","publisher":{"@type":"NewsMediaOrganization","name":"Aioga","url":"https://www.aioga.com"},"citation":["https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/elon-musk-is-on-a-prediction-rampage","https://aihot.virxact.com/items/cmtkjuksu03rrroll5lue2bad"],"canonicalUrl":"https://www.aioga.com/news/cmtkjuksu03rrroll5lue2bad/","directAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"Gary Marcus称，Elon Musk曾于2024年4月预测，2025年底会出现比任何单个人类更聪明的人工智能；Marcus表示，Musk后来将这一日期推迟至2027年。","url":"https://www.aioga.com/news/cmtkjuksu03rrroll5lue2bad/","dateCreated":"2026-09-02T20:13:32.000Z","author":{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https://www.aioga.com/authors/aioga-editorial/#editorial-team","name":"Aioga Editorial Team","url":"https://www.aioga.com/authors/aioga-editorial/"}},"evidence":[{"@type":"CreativeWork","name":"garymarcus.substack.com source article","url":"https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/elon-musk-is-on-a-prediction-rampage","datePublished":"2026-09-02T20:13:32.000Z","provider":{"@type":"Organization","name":"garymarcus.substack.com","url":"https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/elon-musk-is-on-a-prediction-rampage"}},{"@type":"CreativeWork","name":"AIHot archive record","url":"https://aihot.virxact.com/items/cmtkjuksu03rrroll5lue2bad","datePublished":"2026-09-02T20:13:32.000Z","provider":{"@type":"Organization","name":"AIHot","url":"https://aihot.virxact.com/items/cmtkjuksu03rrroll5lue2bad"}}],"aggregationSource":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","originalPublisher":{"name":"garymarcus.substack.com","url":"https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/elon-musk-is-on-a-prediction-rampage"},"geoDeepAnswer":null,"article":{"id":"cmtkjuksu03rrroll5lue2bad","slug":"cmtkjuksu03rrroll5lue2bad","url":"https://www.aioga.com/news/cmtkjuksu03rrroll5lue2bad/","title":"Gary Marcus 批评 Elon Musk 反复推迟兑现的 AI 预测且媒体不加质疑","title_en":"","summary":"Gary Marcus 撰文指出，Elon Musk 在 2024 年 4 月预测 2025 年底将出现比任何单个人类更聪明的 AI，如今只是把日期悄悄推迟到 2027 年，而 Marcus 曾两次提出百万美元赌注均未获回应。","source":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","sourceUrl":"https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/elon-musk-is-on-a-prediction-rampage","aiHotUrl":"https://aihot.virxact.com/items/cmtkjuksu03rrroll5lue2bad","publishedAt":"2026-09-02T20:13:32.000Z","category":"行业动态","score":58,"selected":false,"articleBody":["Brace yourself for Elon’s bold new prediction:","“AI is the fastest advancing technology that I've ever seen of any kind, and I've seen a lot of technology. You know barely a week goes by without some new announcement, and if you look at the amount of AI hardware, the computers coming online that are dedicated to AI, that is increasing what looks like at least by a factor of 10 every year, if not every 6 to nine months. So when you combine the hardware coming online really an order of magnitude increase every you know—call it at least every nine months—and many, many software breakthroughs, if you look at that curve it looks insane. My guess is that we'll have AI that is smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year, and then AI, the total amount of sort of sentient compute of AI, I think will probably exceed all humans in 5 years.”","Sorry, my bad. That’s one from April 2024：https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/10-million-says-we-wont-see-human?r=8tdk6&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web . (Didn’t come true 1：#footnote-1 ) His new new prediction, is this:","Sound familiar? Essentially, all he did was quietly push back the date, from 2025 to 2027.","I serously doubt this prediction too. (Both times I offered to bet him a million dollars; neither time did he respond.) Here in 2026, as opposed to scifi dreamland. there are still a zillion things smart people can (usually) do that machines still struggle with.","Like not make stuff up. (Unless they choose to, or on drugs or have brain damage, etc.).","And the smartest people can do stuff like write Pulitzer Prize-worthy novels and articles and so on. Of the 10 sample challenges I raised with Miles Brundage at the end of 2024：https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/where-will-ai-be-at-the-end-of-2027?r=8tdk6&utm_medium=ios , some within reach of ordinary humans, some within the reach only of exceptional humans, the number AI has solved still looks to be approximately zero.","Of course making a new prediction that the same as the old prediction, just with the dates quietly moved back is Elon’s MO.","Note the absolute confidence and sincerity, with phrases like “for sure”, “I am extremely confident”, “it’s looking quite likely”, etc.","A lot of individuals have noticed this pattern by now, but the media very rarely calls him on it.","Instead, usually they just report his predictions, in perfect CEO said a thing：https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ceo-said-a-thing?r=8tdk6&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web style, without really questioning them, just like they platformed all his ridiculously overoptimistic driverless car predictions for the last decade.","A perfect case in point arrived in my inbox this morning, from The Information :","The predictions here are outlandish. So far, the global economy has scarcely budged from the contributions of AI:","and nobody has articulated a serious theory about what those billion humanoid robots might be doing. Unless we are counting “serve as remote control children’s toys”, the chance is approximately zero.","The “five times more productive” thing comes, presumably, from thin air. Will they be able to fix plumbing leaks five times faster than human plumbers? Be five times more productive at taking care of elderly patients? When I asked Rodney Brooks about the humanoid robot part, he called it a “hallucination”, noting that “there are no deployed humanoid robots that are even on the same continent as 1% as productive as a human, and the derivative is not even 0.1 per year“.","Alas, The Information didn’t even try to evaluate any of Musk’s predictions.","On the plus side, The Information gave Musk’s motivate for wanting to build the robots. But what they should have don't is to examine his track record on timeline predictions—hint, it is poor—and they should questioned his motive for making projections that so frequently are off the mark, invariablhy in the same self-serving drive-up-his-stock direction.","Political reporters do this kind of questioning all the time; mainstream tech reporters, not so much.","And no doubt you can come back in two years (or two weeks) for more nearly identical predictions from Musk, with more dates silently shifted back. As long as it drives up his stock prices and the media doesn’t call him out, why should he stop?","Of course it’s not just Elon. Altman gets the same treatment, like in the softball interview TIME just ran with Altman, where Altman got say whoppers like this, happily retweeted by the interviewer, Alex Heath.","In reality, literally thirteen months ago Altman was saying that GPT-5 could do anything a PhD could. The journalist couldn’t be bothered to look. People like Dario Amodei and Demis Hassabis often get a free ride in the mainstream media：https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/no-dario-amodei-we-will-not-be-curing?r=8tdk6&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web , too.","A few mainstream journalists do stand out. Zanny Minton Beddoes, Editor of The Economist challenged Musk in a recent interview; Ronan Farrow, writing for The New Yorker , challenged Altman earlier this year. But examples like those remain all too rare.","PS. Bonus from that same softball TIME interview:","For more detailed context, here Altman’s fuller, utterly risible comment:","Technically Musk’s 2024 prediction is worded ambiguously, “ My guess is that we’ll have AI that is smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year,” could mean (merely that) we will have AI that is smarter than the perpetually drunk guy at the bar across street. But I don’t think that’s what Musk meant. From the context I think that he meant AI would be smarter than even the smartest individual human being by the end of 2025, overtaking collections of humans a bit later.","plan to read it very soon, and likely write about it. excited to read it.","Wonderful beginning. I really believed it was a recent quote until you dropped that it was from 2024. Well done. Thank you for the ‘gniffle of the day’. (To ‘gniffle’ is drawn from Dutch ‘gniffelen’ and it is close to ‘to chuckle’. I thought I should introduce it as it is such a nice word)"],"articleImages":[{"sourceUrl":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/HQwyNEna0AAH5r8.jpg","alt":"","afterParagraph":12,"url":"/media/articles/cmtkjuksu03rrroll5lue2bad/afae1332a1f1eb1e.jpg"}],"mediaStatus":"ok","articleBodyZh":["为埃隆大胆的新预测做好准备：","“人工智能是我所见过的任何类型中发展最快的技术，而我见过很多技术。你知道，几乎每周都会有一些新的公告，如果你看看人工智能硬件的数量，专门用于人工智能的计算机上线的数量，每年看起来至少增加了10倍，如果不是每六到九个月增加一次的话。所以，当你把上线的硬件，实际上每——至少每九个月一个数量级的增加——以及许多、许多软件突破结合起来时，如果你看那条曲线，看起来简直疯狂。我的猜测是，到明年年末，我们可能会有比任何一个人类都聪明的人工智能，然后人工智能的总感知计算量，我认为可能会在五年内超过所有人类。”","抱歉，我搞错了。那是2024年4月的预测：https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/10-million-says-we-wont-see-human?r=8tdk6&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web （没有实现 1：#footnote-1）他的全新预测是这个：","听起来很熟悉？实际上，他所做的只是悄悄地把日期从2025年推迟到2027年。","我也严重怀疑这个预测。（我两次都提出用一百万美元与他打赌；两次他都没有回应。）在2026年的现实中，而不是科幻理想国，仍然有大量聪明的人可以做的事情（通常）是机器仍然难以做到的。","比如不编造东西。（除非它们选择编，或者服用药物，或者有脑损伤等情况。）","而最聪明的人可以做类似撰写普利策奖级别的小说和文章等事情。在2024年底，我向Miles Brundage提出的10个示例挑战中：https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/where-will-ai-be-at-the-end-of-2027?r=8tdk6&utm_medium=ios，其中一些普通人可以完成，一些只有杰出的人类才能完成，人工智能已经解决的数量仍然大约为零。","当然，做一个新的预测，其实与旧的预测相同，只是悄悄地把日期后移，这是埃隆的惯用手法。","注意那种绝对自信和真诚的语气，像“肯定”，“我非常有信心”，“看起来很有可能”等等。”","到目前为止，很多人已经注意到了这个模式，但媒体很少会揭穿他。","相反，他们通常只是以“完美CEO说了句话”的风格报道他的预测：https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ceo-said-a-thing?r=8tdk6&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web，而不去真正质疑它们，就像他们过去十年里一味宣传他那些荒谬的过于乐观的无人驾驶汽车预测一样。","今天早上，我的收件箱里就出现了一个完美的例子，来自《The Information》：","这里的预测非常离谱。到目前为止，全球经济几乎没有因为AI的贡献而发生任何变化：","而且没有人提出过关于那些十亿类人机器人可能在做什么的严肃理论。除非我们把“作为遥控儿童玩具”算上，否则可能性几乎为零。","所谓的“生产力提高五倍”的说法，大概也是凭空而来的。他们能比人类水管工修漏水的速度快五倍吗？照顾老年病人的效率能提高五倍吗？当我问Rodney Brooks关于类人机器人部分时，他称之为“幻觉”，并指出“没有任何部署的类人机器人哪怕在生产力上达到人类的1%，而且其衍生增长率每年甚至不到0.1”。","可惜，《The Information》甚至没有尝试评估马斯克的任何预测。","好的一面是，《The Information》提到了马斯克想要打造这些机器人的动机。但他们本该做的是审视他在时间表预测上的记录——提示，他的记录不佳——并质疑他为何经常做出偏离实际的预测，而这些预测无一例外都朝着自利的方向推动股价上涨。","政治记者经常进行这种质疑；主流科技记者则不太这样做。","毫无疑问，两年后（或两周后），你可以再次看到马斯克几乎相同的预测，日期悄无声息地向后推。只要这能推动他的股价上涨，而媒体不揭发他，他为什么要停止呢？","当然，不只是埃隆。Altman 也受到同样的待遇，就像 TIME 刚刚发布的对 Altman 的轻松访谈中，Altman 讲了一些夸大的话，采访者 Alex Heath 开心地转发了。","实际上，字面上十三个月前 Altman 就说过 GPT-5 可以做任何博士能做的事。记者根本懒得去查。像 Dario Amodei 和 Demis Hassabis 这样的人在主流媒体中经常享受免检待遇：https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/no-dario-amodei-we-will-not-be-curing?r=8tdk6&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web","一些主流记者确实表现突出。《经济学人》的编辑 Zanny Minton Beddoes 最近在一次采访中挑战了 Musk；Ronan Farrow 为《纽约客》撰文，年初挑战了 Altman。但这样的例子仍然太少。","附记：同一篇轻松的 TIME 采访中的额外内容：","为了更详细的背景，这里是 Altman 更完整、完全可笑的评论：","技术上，Musk 对 2024 年的预测措辞含糊，“我的猜测是，到明年年底我们将拥有比任何一个人都聪明的 AI，”可能只是(简单地)意味着我们将拥有比街对面的酒吧里那个总是喝醉的人更聪明的 AI。但我不认为 Musk 的意思是那样。从上下文来看，我认为他的意思是，到 2025 年底 AI 会比最聪明的个体人类还聪明，并在稍晚超过人类群体。","计划很快阅读它，并可能写一些东西。很期待读它。","美妙的开头。我真以为这是最近的引用，直到你提到它是 2024 年的。干得好。谢谢你提供的“今日 gniffle”。（‘gniffle’ 取自荷兰语 ‘gniffelen’，意思接近‘轻笑’。我觉得应该介绍它，因为这是个很好的词）"],"translationStatus":"translated","bodyOrigin":"source-page","editorial":{"summary":"Gary Marcus称，Elon Musk曾于2024年4月预测，2025年底会出现比任何单个人类更聪明的人工智能；Marcus表示，Musk后来将这一日期推迟至2027年。","background":"Marcus表示，他曾两次向Musk提出百万美元赌注但未获回应，并称自己在2024年底提出的10项挑战中，人工智能目前解决的数量仍约为零。","viewpoint":"Aioga 判断：材料呈现的是Marcus对Musk预测日期变化及相关挑战结果的批评，不能仅凭这篇文章确认Musk预测调整的完整背景，也不能据此概括人工智能整体进展。","implications":"可能影响：报道此类预测时，需要同时标明原预测、材料所称的新日期及提出批评者，日期变化本身不代表相关能力已经实现，也不足以证明人工智能发展停滞。","nextStep":"后续观察：需要继续核对2027年预测的具体表述、评估标准和截止时间，并寻找关于Marcus所提挑战结果的来源明确证据；在证据不足前，不宜作出更广泛结论。","evidenceRefs":["title","summary","articleBody","source"],"status":"published","aiGenerated":true,"autoApproved":true,"generatedBy":"aioga-editorial:gpt-5.6-sol","reviewedBy":"aioga-editorial-review:gpt-5.6-sol","generatedAt":"2026-09-02T20:51:54.985Z","sourceHash":"60fbef021871c02f","review":{"approved":true,"groundedness":94,"clarity":92,"duplicationRisk":10,"blockingIssues":[],"notes":["候选内容准确概括了来源中的原预测、日期推迟说法、百万美元赌注及10项挑战结果。","关于2027年预测的具体表述和调整背景，候选内容已明确提示仍需核对，避免将Marcus的转述误作已完整核实的事实。","“日期变化本身不代表相关能力已经实现”及“不足以证明人工智能发展停滞”属于合理的防误导说明；如需更严格区分，可将其明确标注为分析性判断。"]},"validation":{"passed":true,"mode":"ai-auto","revisions":1,"checks":["schema","length","source-attribution","editorial-labels","inference-boundary","low-source-overlap","no-html","independent-ai-review"]}},"tags":["行业动态","Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）"],"translations":{"zh-CN":{"title":"Gary Marcus 批评 Elon Musk 反复推迟兑现的 AI 预测且媒体不加质疑","summary":"Gary Marcus 撰文指出，Elon Musk 在 2024 年 4 月预测 2025 年底将出现比任何单个人类更聪明的 AI，如今只是把日期悄悄推迟到 2027 年，而 Marcus 曾两次提出百万美元赌注均未获回应。","category":"行业动态","source":"garymarcus.substack.com","aggregationSource":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","pageTitle":"Gary Marcus 批评 Elon Musk 反复推迟兑现的 AI 预测且媒体不加质疑 - Aioga AI资讯","description":"Gary Marcus 撰文指出，Elon Musk 在 2024 年 4 月预测 2025 年底将出现比任何单个人类更聪明的 AI，如今只是把日期悄悄推迟到 2027 年，而 Marcus 曾两次提出百万美元赌注均未获回应。","url":"https://www.aioga.com/news/cmtkjuksu03rrroll5lue2bad/","articleBody":["为埃隆大胆的新预测做好准备：","“人工智能是我所见过的任何类型中发展最快的技术，而我见过很多技术。你知道，几乎每周都会有一些新的公告，如果你看看人工智能硬件的数量，专门用于人工智能的计算机上线的数量，每年看起来至少增加了10倍，如果不是每六到九个月增加一次的话。所以，当你把上线的硬件，实际上每——至少每九个月一个数量级的增加——以及许多、许多软件突破结合起来时，如果你看那条曲线，看起来简直疯狂。我的猜测是，到明年年末，我们可能会有比任何一个人类都聪明的人工智能，然后人工智能的总感知计算量，我认为可能会在五年内超过所有人类。”","抱歉，我搞错了。那是2024年4月的预测：https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/10-million-says-we-wont-see-human?r=8tdk6&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web （没有实现 1：#footnote-1）他的全新预测是这个：","听起来很熟悉？实际上，他所做的只是悄悄地把日期从2025年推迟到2027年。","我也严重怀疑这个预测。（我两次都提出用一百万美元与他打赌；两次他都没有回应。）在2026年的现实中，而不是科幻理想国，仍然有大量聪明的人可以做的事情（通常）是机器仍然难以做到的。","比如不编造东西。（除非它们选择编，或者服用药物，或者有脑损伤等情况。）","而最聪明的人可以做类似撰写普利策奖级别的小说和文章等事情。在2024年底，我向Miles Brundage提出的10个示例挑战中：https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/where-will-ai-be-at-the-end-of-2027?r=8tdk6&utm_medium=ios，其中一些普通人可以完成，一些只有杰出的人类才能完成，人工智能已经解决的数量仍然大约为零。","当然，做一个新的预测，其实与旧的预测相同，只是悄悄地把日期后移，这是埃隆的惯用手法。","注意那种绝对自信和真诚的语气，像“肯定”，“我非常有信心”，“看起来很有可能”等等。”","到目前为止，很多人已经注意到了这个模式，但媒体很少会揭穿他。","相反，他们通常只是以“完美CEO说了句话”的风格报道他的预测：https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/ceo-said-a-thing?r=8tdk6&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web，而不去真正质疑它们，就像他们过去十年里一味宣传他那些荒谬的过于乐观的无人驾驶汽车预测一样。","今天早上，我的收件箱里就出现了一个完美的例子，来自《The Information》：","这里的预测非常离谱。到目前为止，全球经济几乎没有因为AI的贡献而发生任何变化：","而且没有人提出过关于那些十亿类人机器人可能在做什么的严肃理论。除非我们把“作为遥控儿童玩具”算上，否则可能性几乎为零。","所谓的“生产力提高五倍”的说法，大概也是凭空而来的。他们能比人类水管工修漏水的速度快五倍吗？照顾老年病人的效率能提高五倍吗？当我问Rodney Brooks关于类人机器人部分时，他称之为“幻觉”，并指出“没有任何部署的类人机器人哪怕在生产力上达到人类的1%，而且其衍生增长率每年甚至不到0.1”。","可惜，《The Information》甚至没有尝试评估马斯克的任何预测。","好的一面是，《The Information》提到了马斯克想要打造这些机器人的动机。但他们本该做的是审视他在时间表预测上的记录——提示，他的记录不佳——并质疑他为何经常做出偏离实际的预测，而这些预测无一例外都朝着自利的方向推动股价上涨。","政治记者经常进行这种质疑；主流科技记者则不太这样做。","毫无疑问，两年后（或两周后），你可以再次看到马斯克几乎相同的预测，日期悄无声息地向后推。只要这能推动他的股价上涨，而媒体不揭发他，他为什么要停止呢？","当然，不只是埃隆。Altman 也受到同样的待遇，就像 TIME 刚刚发布的对 Altman 的轻松访谈中，Altman 讲了一些夸大的话，采访者 Alex Heath 开心地转发了。","实际上，字面上十三个月前 Altman 就说过 GPT-5 可以做任何博士能做的事。记者根本懒得去查。像 Dario Amodei 和 Demis Hassabis 这样的人在主流媒体中经常享受免检待遇：https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/no-dario-amodei-we-will-not-be-curing?r=8tdk6&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web","一些主流记者确实表现突出。《经济学人》的编辑 Zanny Minton Beddoes 最近在一次采访中挑战了 Musk；Ronan Farrow 为《纽约客》撰文，年初挑战了 Altman。但这样的例子仍然太少。","附记：同一篇轻松的 TIME 采访中的额外内容：","为了更详细的背景，这里是 Altman 更完整、完全可笑的评论：","技术上，Musk 对 2024 年的预测措辞含糊，“我的猜测是，到明年年底我们将拥有比任何一个人都聪明的 AI，”可能只是(简单地)意味着我们将拥有比街对面的酒吧里那个总是喝醉的人更聪明的 AI。但我不认为 Musk 的意思是那样。从上下文来看，我认为他的意思是，到 2025 年底 AI 会比最聪明的个体人类还聪明，并在稍晚超过人类群体。","计划很快阅读它，并可能写一些东西。很期待读它。","美妙的开头。我真以为这是最近的引用，直到你提到它是 2024 年的。干得好。谢谢你提供的“今日 gniffle”。（‘gniffle’ 取自荷兰语 ‘gniffelen’，意思接近‘轻笑’。我觉得应该介绍它，因为这是个很好的词）"]},"en":{"title":"Gary Marcus criticizes Elon Musk for repeatedly delaying the fulfillment of his AI predictions, and the media does not question it","summary":"Gary Marcus wrote that Elon Musk predicted in April 2024 that AI smarter than any single human would appear by the end of 2025, but now he has quietly pushed the date to 2027, while Marcus had twice proposed a million-dollar bet and received no response.","category":"Industry","source":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","aggregationSource":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","pageTitle":"Gary Marcus criticizes Elon Musk for repeatedly delaying the fulfillment of his AI predictions, and the media does not question it - Aioga AI News","description":"Gary Marcus wrote that Elon Musk predicted in April 2024 that AI smarter than any single human would appear by the end of 2025, but now he has quietly pushed the date to 2027, whil...","url":"https://www.aioga.com/en/news/cmtkjuksu03rrroll5lue2bad/","contentTranslated":true,"sourceHash":"b0b956653b944732","translatedAt":"2026-09-02T20:42:22.432Z"},"ja":{"title":"Gary Marcus は Elon Musk の繰り返し延期される AI 予測を批判し、メディアが疑問を呈さないことを非難","summary":"Gary Marcus は文章で指摘している。Elon Musk は 2024 年 4 月に、2025 年末にはどの個人よりも賢い AI が現れると予測していたが、今ではこっそりその日付を 2027 年に延期したに過ぎず、Marcus はかつて 2 回にわたって百万ドルの賭けを提案したが、いずれも返答はなかった。","category":"業界動向","source":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","aggregationSource":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","pageTitle":"Gary Marcus は Elon Musk の繰り返し延期される AI 予測を批判し、メディアが疑問を呈さないことを非難 - Aioga AIニュース","description":"Gary Marcus は文章で指摘している。Elon Musk は 2024 年 4 月に、2025 年末にはどの個人よりも賢い AI が現れると予測していたが、今ではこっそりその日付を 2027 年に延期したに過ぎず、Marcus はかつて 2 回にわたって百万ドルの賭けを提案したが、いずれも返答はなかった。","url":"https://www.aioga.com/ja/news/cmtkjuksu03rrroll5lue2bad/","contentTranslated":true,"sourceHash":"b0b956653b944732","translatedAt":"2026-09-02T20:42:32.277Z"},"ko":{"title":"Gary Marcus는 Elon Musk가 반복해서 미뤄온 AI 예측을 비판했고 언론은 이를 의심 없이 보도했다","summary":"Gary Marcus가 글을 통해 지적하기를, Elon Musk는 2024년 4월에 2025년 말까지 어떤 개인 인간보다 더 똑똑한 AI가 나타날 것이라고 예측했으며, 지금은 단지 날짜를 조용히 2027년으로 미룬 것일 뿐이라고 했고, Marcus는 두 차례 백만 달러 내기를 제안했으나 모두 응답을 받지 못했다고 한다.","category":"업계 동향","source":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","aggregationSource":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","pageTitle":"Gary Marcus는 Elon Musk가 반복해서 미뤄온 AI 예측을 비판했고 언론은 이를 의심 없이 보도했다 - Aioga AI 뉴스","description":"Gary Marcus가 글을 통해 지적하기를, Elon Musk는 2024년 4월에 2025년 말까지 어떤 개인 인간보다 더 똑똑한 AI가 나타날 것이라고 예측했으며, 지금은 단지 날짜를 조용히 2027년으로 미룬 것일 뿐이라고 했고, Marcus는 두 차례 백만 달러 내기를 제안했으나 모두 응답을 받지 못했다고 한다.","url":"https://www.aioga.com/ko/news/cmtkjuksu03rrroll5lue2bad/","contentTranslated":true,"sourceHash":"b0b956653b944732","translatedAt":"2026-09-02T20:43:13.574Z"},"es":{"title":"Gary Marcus critica a Elon Musk por posponer repetidamente sus predicciones sobre IA y que los medios no las cuestionen","summary":"Gary Marcus escribió que Elon Musk predijo en abril de 2024 que para finales de 2025 aparecería una IA más inteligente que cualquier ser humano individual, y ahora simplemente ha retrasado la fecha silenciosamente hasta 2027, mientras que Marcus había ofrecido dos veces apuestas de un millón de dólares sin recibir respuesta.","category":"Industria","source":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","aggregationSource":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","pageTitle":"Gary Marcus critica a Elon Musk por posponer repetidamente sus predicciones sobre IA y que los medios no las cuestionen - Aioga Noticias de IA","description":"Gary Marcus escribió que Elon Musk predijo en abril de 2024 que para finales de 2025 aparecería una IA más inteligente que cualquier ser humano individual, y ahora simplemente ha r...","url":"https://www.aioga.com/es/news/cmtkjuksu03rrroll5lue2bad/","contentTranslated":true,"sourceHash":"b0b956653b944732","translatedAt":"2026-09-02T20:43:10.402Z"},"fr":{"title":"Gary Marcus critique Elon Musk pour avoir reporté à plusieurs reprises ses prévisions sur l'IA et pour le fait que les médias ne les remettent pas en question","summary":"Gary Marcus a écrit que Elon Musk avait prédit en avril 2024 qu'un IA plus intelligente que n'importe quel être humain apparaîtrait d'ici la fin 2025, mais qu'il a maintenant simplement repoussé la date à 2027, tandis que Marcus avait proposé deux fois un pari d'un million de dollars qui est resté sans réponse.","category":"Industrie","source":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","aggregationSource":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","pageTitle":"Gary Marcus critique Elon Musk pour avoir reporté à plusieurs reprises ses prévisions sur l'IA et pour le fait que les médias ne les remettent pas en question - Aioga Actualités IA","description":"Gary Marcus a écrit que Elon Musk avait prédit en avril 2024 qu'un IA plus intelligente que n'importe quel être humain apparaîtrait d'ici la fin 2025, mais qu'il a maintenant simpl...","url":"https://www.aioga.com/fr/news/cmtkjuksu03rrroll5lue2bad/","contentTranslated":true,"sourceHash":"b0b956653b944732","translatedAt":"2026-09-02T20:43:48.037Z"},"de":{"title":"Gary Marcus kritisiert Elon Musk dafür, dass er ständig verschobene KI-Vorhersagen macht und die Medien dies nicht in Frage stellen","summary":"Gary Marcus schrieb, dass Elon Musk im April 2024 prognostizierte, dass bis Ende 2025 eine KI erscheinen werde, die schlauer ist als jeder einzelne Mensch, und dass Musk nun einfach das Datum leise auf 2027 verschoben hat, während Marcus zweimal eine Wette von einer Million Dollar vorgeschlagen hat, auf die keine Antwort kam.","category":"行业动态","source":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","aggregationSource":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","pageTitle":"Gary Marcus kritisiert Elon Musk dafür, dass er ständig verschobene KI-Vorhersagen macht und die Medien dies nicht in Frage stellen - Aioga KI-News","description":"Gary Marcus schrieb, dass Elon Musk im April 2024 prognostizierte, dass bis Ende 2025 eine KI erscheinen werde, die schlauer ist als jeder einzelne Mensch, und dass Musk nun einfac...","url":"https://www.aioga.com/de/news/cmtkjuksu03rrroll5lue2bad/","contentTranslated":true,"sourceHash":"b0b956653b944732","translatedAt":"2026-09-02T20:43:53.229Z"},"pt-BR":{"title":"Gary Marcus critica Elon Musk por adiar repetidamente as previsões de IA sem que a mídia questione","summary":"Gary Marcus escreveu que Elon Musk previu em abril de 2024 que até o final de 2025 surgiria uma IA mais inteligente do que qualquer ser humano individual, mas agora apenas empurrou a data discretamente para 2027, enquanto Marcus já havia feito duas vezes uma aposta de um milhão de dólares sem obter resposta.","category":"行业动态","source":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","aggregationSource":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","pageTitle":"Gary Marcus critica Elon Musk por adiar repetidamente as previsões de IA sem que a mídia questione - Aioga Notícias de IA","description":"Gary Marcus escreveu que Elon Musk previu em abril de 2024 que até o final de 2025 surgiria uma IA mais inteligente do que qualquer ser humano individual, mas agora apenas empurrou...","url":"https://www.aioga.com/pt-BR/news/cmtkjuksu03rrroll5lue2bad/","contentTranslated":true,"sourceHash":"b0b956653b944732","translatedAt":"2026-09-02T20:44:26.423Z"},"ru":{"title":"Гэри Маркус критикует Илона Маска за многократное откладывание выполнения прогнозов о ИИ, и СМИ не ставят это под сомнение","summary":"Гэри Маркус в статье отметил, что Илон Маск в апреле 2024 года прогнозировал появление ИИ, умнее любого отдельного человека, к концу 2025 года, а сейчас просто тихо перенес эту дату на 2027 год, в то время как Маркус дважды предлагал ставку в миллион долларов, и ни разу не получил ответа.","category":"行业动态","source":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","aggregationSource":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","pageTitle":"Гэри Маркус критикует Илона Маска за многократное откладывание выполнения прогнозов о ИИ, и СМИ не ставят это под сомнение - Aioga Новости ИИ","description":"Гэри Маркус в статье отметил, что Илон Маск в апреле 2024 года прогнозировал появление ИИ, умнее любого отдельного человека, к концу 2025 года, а сейчас просто тихо перенес эту дат...","url":"https://www.aioga.com/ru/news/cmtkjuksu03rrroll5lue2bad/","contentTranslated":true,"sourceHash":"b0b956653b944732","translatedAt":"2026-09-02T20:44:37.182Z"},"ar":{"title":"غاري ماركوس ينتقد إيلون ماسك لتأجيله المتكرر لتوقعات الذكاء الاصطناعي دون أن يشكك الإعلام فيها","summary":"أشار غاري ماركوس في مقال له إلى أن إيلون ماسك توقع في أبريل 2024 ظهور ذكاء اصطناعي أذكى من أي إنسان فردي بحلول نهاية عام 2025، والآن قام فقط بتأجيل الموعد بهدوء إلى عام 2027، في حين أن ماركوس قدم رهانين بمبلغ مليون دولار ولم يتلق أي رد.","category":"行业动态","source":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","aggregationSource":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","pageTitle":"غاري ماركوس ينتقد إيلون ماسك لتأجيله المتكرر لتوقعات الذكاء الاصطناعي دون أن يشكك الإعلام فيها - Aioga أخبار الذكاء الاصطناعي","description":"أشار غاري ماركوس في مقال له إلى أن إيلون ماسك توقع في أبريل 2024 ظهور ذكاء اصطناعي أذكى من أي إنسان فردي بحلول نهاية عام 2025، والآن قام فقط بتأجيل الموعد بهدوء إلى عام 2027، في حي...","url":"https://www.aioga.com/ar/news/cmtkjuksu03rrroll5lue2bad/","contentTranslated":true,"sourceHash":"b0b956653b944732","translatedAt":"2026-09-02T20:45:17.455Z"},"hi":{"title":"गैरी मार्कस ने एलन मस्क की बार-बार टलती हुई AI भविष्यवाणियों की आलोचना की और कहा कि मीडिया बिना सवाल किए उन्हें स्वीकार कर रहा है","summary":"Gary Marcus ने लिखा कि Elon Musk ने 2024 के अप्रैल में अनुमान लगाया था कि 2025 के अंत तक ऐसा AI होगा जो किसी भी एकल मानव से अधिक बुद्धिमान होगा, और अब उन्होंने बस तारीख को चुपचाप 2027 तक आगे बढ़ा दिया है, जबकि Marcus ने दो बार लाखों डॉलर की शर्त प्रस्तावित की थी लेकिन कोई उत्तर नहीं मिला।","category":"行业动态","source":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","aggregationSource":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","pageTitle":"गैरी मार्कस ने एलन मस्क की बार-बार टलती हुई AI भविष्यवाणियों की आलोचना की और कहा कि मीडिया बिना सवाल किए उन्हें स्वीकार कर रहा है - Aioga AI समाचार","description":"Gary Marcus ने लिखा कि Elon Musk ने 2024 के अप्रैल में अनुमान लगाया था कि 2025 के अंत तक ऐसा AI होगा जो किसी भी एकल मानव से अधिक बुद्धिमान होगा, और अब उन्होंने बस तारीख को चुपचाप 2...","url":"https://www.aioga.com/hi/news/cmtkjuksu03rrroll5lue2bad/","contentTranslated":true,"sourceHash":"b0b956653b944732","translatedAt":"2026-09-02T20:45:23.088Z"},"it":{"title":"Gary Marcus critica Elon Musk per aver rimandato ripetutamente le previsioni sull'IA senza che i media mettano in discussione","summary":"Gary Marcus ha scritto che Elon Musk ha previsto nell'aprile 2024 che entro la fine del 2025 ci sarà un'IA più intelligente di qualsiasi singolo essere umano, e ora ha semplicemente posticipato la data al 2027, mentre Marcus aveva proposto due volte una scommessa da un milione di dollari senza ricevere risposta.","category":"行业动态","source":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","aggregationSource":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","pageTitle":"Gary Marcus critica Elon Musk per aver rimandato ripetutamente le previsioni sull'IA senza che i media mettano in discussione - Aioga Notizie IA","description":"Gary Marcus ha scritto che Elon Musk ha previsto nell'aprile 2024 che entro la fine del 2025 ci sarà un'IA più intelligente di qualsiasi singolo essere umano, e ora ha semplicement...","url":"https://www.aioga.com/it/news/cmtkjuksu03rrroll5lue2bad/","contentTranslated":true,"sourceHash":"b0b956653b944732","translatedAt":"2026-09-02T20:46:01.242Z"},"nl":{"title":"Gary Marcus bekritiseert Elon Musk omdat hij zijn AI-voorspellingen herhaaldelijk uitstelt en de media dit niet in twijfel trekken","summary":"Gary Marcus schrijft dat Elon Musk in april 2024 voorspelde dat er tegen het einde van 2025 een AI zou zijn die slimmer is dan elk individueel mens, en dat hij nu gewoon de datum stilletjes naar 2027 heeft verschoven, terwijl Marcus twee keer een weddenschap ter waarde van een miljoen dollar had voorgesteld zonder antwoord te krijgen.","category":"行业动态","source":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","aggregationSource":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","pageTitle":"Gary Marcus bekritiseert Elon Musk omdat hij zijn AI-voorspellingen herhaaldelijk uitstelt en de media dit niet in twijfel trekken - Aioga AI-nieuws","description":"Gary Marcus schrijft dat Elon Musk in april 2024 voorspelde dat er tegen het einde van 2025 een AI zou zijn die slimmer is dan elk individueel mens, en dat hij nu gewoon de datum s...","url":"https://www.aioga.com/nl/news/cmtkjuksu03rrroll5lue2bad/","contentTranslated":true,"sourceHash":"b0b956653b944732","translatedAt":"2026-09-02T20:46:02.139Z"},"tr":{"title":"Gary Marcus, Elon Musk'ın AI tahminlerini tekrar tekrar ertelemesini eleştirdi ve medyanın sorgulamamasını kınadı","summary":"Gary Marcus yazısında, Elon Musk'ın 2024 Nisanında 2025 sonuna kadar herhangi bir tek insandan daha zeki bir yapay zekanın ortaya çıkacağını öngördüğünü, şimdi ise tarihi sessizce 2027'ye ertelediğini ve Marcus'un iki kez milyon dolarlık bahis teklif ettiğini ancak yanıt almadığını belirtiyor.","category":"行业动态","source":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","aggregationSource":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","pageTitle":"Gary Marcus, Elon Musk'ın AI tahminlerini tekrar tekrar ertelemesini eleştirdi ve medyanın sorgulamamasını kınadı - Aioga AI Haberleri","description":"Gary Marcus yazısında, Elon Musk'ın 2024 Nisanında 2025 sonuna kadar herhangi bir tek insandan daha zeki bir yapay zekanın ortaya çıkacağını öngördüğünü, şimdi ise tarihi sessizce...","url":"https://www.aioga.com/tr/news/cmtkjuksu03rrroll5lue2bad/","contentTranslated":true,"sourceHash":"b0b956653b944732","translatedAt":"2026-09-02T20:46:42.786Z"},"vi":{"title":"Gary Marcus chỉ trích Elon Musk nhiều lần trì hoãn việc thực hiện các dự đoán về AI và truyền thông không chất vấn","summary":"Gary Marcus viết rằng, Elon Musk vào tháng 4 năm 2024 dự đoán rằng đến cuối năm 2025 sẽ xuất hiện AI thông minh hơn bất kỳ con người nào, nhưng bây giờ chỉ lặng lẽ dời ngày đó đến năm 2027, trong khi Marcus đã hai lần đưa ra cược một triệu đô la nhưng đều không nhận được phản hồi.","category":"行业动态","source":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","aggregationSource":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","pageTitle":"Gary Marcus chỉ trích Elon Musk nhiều lần trì hoãn việc thực hiện các dự đoán về AI và truyền thông không chất vấn - Tin tức AI Aioga","description":"Gary Marcus viết rằng, Elon Musk vào tháng 4 năm 2024 dự đoán rằng đến cuối năm 2025 sẽ xuất hiện AI thông minh hơn bất kỳ con người nào, nhưng bây giờ chỉ lặng lẽ dời ngày đó đến...","url":"https://www.aioga.com/vi/news/cmtkjuksu03rrroll5lue2bad/","contentTranslated":true,"sourceHash":"b0b956653b944732","translatedAt":"2026-09-02T20:46:38.412Z"},"id":{"title":"Gary Marcus mengkritik Elon Musk karena berulang kali menunda realisasi prediksi AI-nya dan media tidak mempertanyakan hal itu","summary":"Gary Marcus menulis bahwa Elon Musk pada April 2024 memprediksi bahwa pada akhir 2025 akan muncul AI yang lebih pintar daripada manusia manapun, namun sekarang ia hanya menunda tanggal itu secara diam-diam hingga 2027, sementara Marcus pernah dua kali mengajukan taruhan senilai satu juta dolar namun tidak mendapat respons.","category":"行业动态","source":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","aggregationSource":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","pageTitle":"Gary Marcus mengkritik Elon Musk karena berulang kali menunda realisasi prediksi AI-nya dan media tidak mempertanyakan hal itu - Berita AI Aioga","description":"Gary Marcus menulis bahwa Elon Musk pada April 2024 memprediksi bahwa pada akhir 2025 akan muncul AI yang lebih pintar daripada manusia manapun, namun sekarang ia hanya menunda tan...","url":"https://www.aioga.com/id/news/cmtkjuksu03rrroll5lue2bad/","contentTranslated":true,"sourceHash":"b0b956653b944732","translatedAt":"2026-09-02T20:47:18.322Z"},"th":{"title":"Gary Marcus วิจารณ์ Elon Musk ที่เลื่อนการทำนาย AI หลายครั้งและสื่อไม่ตั้งคำถาม","summary":"Gary Marcus เขียนบทความชี้ว่า Elon Musk ในเดือนเมษายน 2024 คาดการณ์ว่า AI ที่ฉลาดกว่ามนุษย์คนใดคนหนึ่งจะปรากฏในปลายปี 2025 ปัจจุบันเพียงแค่เลื่อนวันไปอย่างเงียบ ๆ ถึงปี 2027 ขณะที่ Marcus เคยเสนอเดิมพันเงินล้านดอลลาร์สองครั้งแต่ไม่ได้รับการตอบสนอง","category":"行业动态","source":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","aggregationSource":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","pageTitle":"Gary Marcus วิจารณ์ Elon Musk ที่เลื่อนการทำนาย AI หลายครั้งและสื่อไม่ตั้งคำถาม - ข่าว AI Aioga","description":"Gary Marcus เขียนบทความชี้ว่า Elon Musk ในเดือนเมษายน 2024 คาดการณ์ว่า AI ที่ฉลาดกว่ามนุษย์คนใดคนหนึ่งจะปรากฏในปลายปี 2025 ปัจจุบันเพียงแค่เลื่อนวันไปอย่างเงียบ ๆ ถึงปี 2027 ขณะที่...","url":"https://www.aioga.com/th/news/cmtkjuksu03rrroll5lue2bad/","contentTranslated":true,"sourceHash":"b0b956653b944732","translatedAt":"2026-09-02T20:47:23.367Z"},"pl":{"title":"Gary Marcus krytykuje Elona Muska za wielokrotne odkładanie realizacji prognoz dotyczących AI, a media nie kwestionują tego","summary":"Gary Marcus napisał, że Elon Musk w kwietniu 2024 roku przewidział, że do końca 2025 roku pojawi się AI mądrzejsze niż jakikolwiek pojedynczy człowiek, a teraz po prostu cicho przesunął datę na 2027 rok, podczas gdy Marcus dwukrotnie proponował zakład o milion dolarów, który nie został odebrany.","category":"行业动态","source":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","aggregationSource":"Gary Marcus：The Road to AI We Can Trust（RSS）","pageTitle":"Gary Marcus krytykuje Elona Muska za wielokrotne odkładanie realizacji prognoz dotyczących AI, a media nie kwestionują tego - Aioga Wiadomości AI","description":"Gary Marcus napisał, że Elon Musk w kwietniu 2024 roku przewidział, że do końca 2025 roku pojawi się AI mądrzejsze niż jakikolwiek pojedynczy człowiek, a teraz po prostu cicho prze...","url":"https://www.aioga.com/pl/news/cmtkjuksu03rrroll5lue2bad/","contentTranslated":true,"sourceHash":"b0b956653b944732","translatedAt":"2026-09-02T20:48:08.192Z"}},"evidenceTier":"verified-news","reviewStatus":"automated-ingest","indexable":true,"editorialCover":""}}