Google DeepMind CEO Hassabis 提出先进AI治理框架

谷歌DeepMind的首席执行官Demis Hassabis发布了一份关于管理先进人工智能的详细框架提案。

Hassabis表示，根据他的观点，通用人工智能（AGI）可能就在几年之内实现，他重复了自己四月份提出的一个观点：https://the-decoder.com/deepmind-ceo-hassabis-says-agi-will-hit-like-ten-industrial-revolutions-compressed-into-a-single-decade/：其影响可能比工业革命大十倍，并且到来的速度也快十倍。与此同时，技术进展正在超越我们对其理解。早在五月，DeepMind的负责人就认为人类已经“处于奇点的前缘”，这一说法引发了广泛讨论：https://the-decoder.com/deepminds-hassabis-sees-humanity-in-the-foothills-of-the-singularity-while-lecun-says-current-ai-isnt-intelligent/。

现在，Hassabis提出了：https://x.com/demishassabis/status/2076957440109625718 一个新的美国标准机构，其模式类似金融监管机构FINRA。该机构将制定前沿模型的评估协议，起初是自愿性的，之后可能变为强制性的。该机构将由行业资助，并使用定期更新的基准。随后，国际社会也需要效仿，并在最关键的问题上达成共识。

如有必要，该机构还可以协调发展放缓，类似Anthropic最近考虑的做法：https://the-decoder.com/anthropic-says-claude-now-writes-over-90-of-its-code-and-wants-the-world-to-have-an-ai-pause-button/。Hassabis强调，初创企业或学术研究所开发的非前沿模型将被豁免。这可以规避“监管俘获”的指控，即大型公司利用监管阻碍小型竞争者的发展。

Hassabis提出该提案的时机很可能不是巧合。就在不久前，一封由一组知名AI研究人员和经济学家签署的信件：https://the-decoder.com/nobel-laureates-and-ai-leaders-warn-the-window-to-prepare-for-ais-economic-impact-is-closing-fast/ 警告了由大规模AI驱动的失业可能带来的广泛后果。虽然Hassabis没有签署该信，但他关于潜在后果的观点与之相似。然而，他的提案在应对措施上更为具体，而不危言耸听。

“没有人能完全确定接下来会发生什么，甚至专家们也存在分歧。当不确定性很高且利害关系如此重大时，以谨慎乐观的态度前进是明智且正确的策略，”哈萨比斯写道。广告

专家们的分歧程度在去年十二月显露无疑，当时哈萨比斯本人卷入了一场公开争论。Yann LeCun 称基于语言模型的通用智能概念为“完全胡说”：https://the-decoder.com/yann-lecun-calls-general-intelligence-complete-bs-and-deepmind-ceo-hassabis-fires-back-publicly/ 并且“完全妄想”。哈萨比斯公开反驳，称 LeCun “完全错误”。

Gemini 联合负责人 Oriol Vinyals 提出了一个中间观点：https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=2158&v=NQczevdpxq0&feature=youtu.be：如今的模型在某些领域很强，但真正创新的能力仍然缺失。深度学习先驱 Richard Sutton 有类似观点，并刚刚宣布成立他的初创公司 Oak Labs：https://the-decoder.com/turing-award-winner-rich-sutton-founds-oak-lab-to-build-ai-agents-that-learn-on-their-own/ 来解决这一问题。Deepmind 联合创始人 Shane Legg 认为“最小化通用人工智能”可能在 2028 年就实现：https://the-decoder.com/deepmind-co-founder-shane-legg-sees-50-percent-chance-of-minimal-agi-by-2028/。广告 DEC_D_Incontent-2

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Google Deepmind CEO Demis Hassabis has published a detailed framework proposal for governing advanced AI.

Artificial general intelligence (AGI) is likely just a few years away, according to Hassabis, who just repeated a claim he made in April：https://the-decoder.com/deepmind-ceo-hassabis-says-agi-will-hit-like-ten-industrial-revolutions-compressed-into-a-single-decade/: the impact could be ten times greater than the Industrial Revolution and arrive ten times faster. At the same time, progress is outpacing our understanding of the technology. Back in May, the Deepmind chief saw humanity already "in the foothills of the singularity," a widely debated statement：https://the-decoder.com/deepminds-hassabis-sees-humanity-in-the-foothills-of-the-singularity-while-lecun-says-current-ai-isnt-intelligent/.

Now, Hassabis proposes：https://x.com/demishassabis/status/2076957440109625718 a new US standards body modeled after the financial regulator FINRA. It would develop evaluation protocols for frontier models, starting on a voluntary basis and later becoming mandatory. The agency would be funded by industry and use regularly updated benchmarks. The international community would then need to follow suit and find consensus on the most critical points. Ad

If necessary, the body could also coordinate a slowdown in development, similar to what Anthropic recently considered：https://the-decoder.com/anthropic-says-claude-now-writes-over-90-of-its-code-and-wants-the-world-to-have-an-ai-pause-button/. Hassabis stresses that non-frontier models from startups or academic research would be exempt. That sidesteps the accusation of "regulatory capture," where established companies try to use regulation to hold back smaller competitors. Ad DEC_D_Incontent-1

The timing of Hassabis's proposal is likely no coincidence. Shortly before, a letter signed by a prominent group of AI researchers and economists：https://the-decoder.com/nobel-laureates-and-ai-leaders-warn-the-window-to-prepare-for-ais-economic-impact-is-closing-fast/ warned of potentially sweeping consequences from massive AI-driven job losses. Hassabis did not sign that letter, even though his argument about the potential consequences sounds similar. His proposal, however, is more specific about countermeasures without being alarmist.

"Nobody in the world knows for sure what is going to happen from here, and even the experts disagree. When there is a large degree of uncertainty and the stakes are this high, proceeding with cautious optimism is the sensible and correct strategy," Hassabis writes. Ad

The extent of that expert disagreement was on full display last December, when Hassabis himself got caught up in a public spat. Yann LeCun called the concept of general intelligence based on language models "complete BS"：https://the-decoder.com/yann-lecun-calls-general-intelligence-complete-bs-and-deepmind-ceo-hassabis-fires-back-publicly/ and "completely delusional." Hassabis pushed back publicly, saying LeCun was "just plain incorrect."

Gemini co-lead Oriol Vinyals offers a middle ground：https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=2158&v=NQczevdpxq0&feature=youtu.be: today's models are strong in some areas, but the ability to truly innovate is still missing. Deep learning pioneer Richard Sutton holds a similar view and just announced his startup Oak Labs：https://the-decoder.com/turing-award-winner-rich-sutton-founds-oak-lab-to-build-ai-agents-that-learn-on-their-own/ to tackle that problem. Deepmind co-founder Shane Legg considers a "minimal AGI" possible as early as 2028：https://the-decoder.com/deepmind-co-founder-shane-legg-sees-50-percent-chance-of-minimal-agi-by-2028/. Ad DEC_D_Incontent-2

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