三星、SK 海力士和美光等厂商将产能转向利润更高的 AI 数据中心高带宽内存，导致手机 RAM 和存储成本上升，推动终端价格上涨。 约 60% 的印度市场集中在 2 万卢比（约 210 美元）以下价位段，消费者被迫延长换机周期至约四年，低端机型出货量同比暴跌 45%。
在分析师警告说：https://techcrunch.com/2026/02/27/memory-shortage-could-cause-the-biggest-smartphone-shipments-dip-in-over-a-decade/ AI 驱动的内存芯片需求将影响消费电子数月后，印度提供了最有力的证据，显示这一冲击已经到来，智能手机价格上涨正在重塑市场。
所涉及的内存芯片——RAM 和存储组件——正是科技巨头们需要大量采购来建设 AI 数据中心的芯片。像三星、SK 海力士和美光这样的制造商已经将生产能力转向高带宽内存，即用于 AI 加速器的专用芯片，因为每片晶圆的利润远高于用于手机和笔记本电脑的标准内存——这导致日常消费电子的产能减少，成本上升。
根据市场研究公司 Counterpoint Research 的数据，印度是继中国之后全球第二大按出货量计算的智能手机市场，2024 年 4-6 月季度智能手机出货量同比下降 10%：https://counterpointresearch.com/en/insights/india-smartphone-shipments-fall-10-percent-yoy-june-quarter，这是六年来六月季度下降幅度最大的季度，高内存成本推高了手机价格。
根据 Counterpoint 的数据，这一影响在印度比在中国更加明显，中国第二季度智能手机出货量仅下降 2%。印度受到影响更大，因为其约 60% 的智能手机市场集中在 2 万卢比以下（约 210 美元）的细分市场，高内存成本对价格影响最大，Counterpoint 的研究副总裁 Tarun Pathak 告诉 TechCrunch。
多年来，印度一直是全球智能手机品牌的重要市场。这个拥有超过 14 亿人口和超过 7 亿智能手机用户的南亚国家，已成为价格敏感市场消费者需求的风向标，使得购买模式的变化受到设备制造商、芯片供应商以及跟踪 AI 供应链健康状况的投资者密切关注。
Pathak 告诉 TechCrunch，消费者不太可能完全放弃智能手机。不过，预计许多消费者将推迟升级，将更换周期从之前的大约 3.5 年延长到大约 4 年，而像苹果和三星这样的高端品牌在经济放缓中仍然受影响较小。
这种不均衡的影响已经在重新塑造智能手机制造商之间的竞争。根据 Counterpoint 的数据，三星是第二季度印度唯一一个出货量增长的主要智能手机品牌，出货量同比增长 2%。相比之下，苹果的出货量下降了 3%——尽管这种下降主要反映了供应限制和库存短缺，限制了苹果交付 iPhone 的数量。
Counterpoint Research 的高级分析师 Prachir Singh 告诉 TechCrunch，购买高端智能手机的消费者对价格上涨的敏感度较低，融资方案使昂贵设备更易负担。
市场低端的痛苦最为明显。Counterpoint 表示，₹15,000 以下（约 150 美元以下）细分市场的出货量同比下降了 45%。由于中国品牌在入门级和中端智能手机市场暴露较大，它们的整体市场份额降至自 2020 年以来连续第二个日历季度的最低水平。
更加困难的经济环境也促使战略调整。本周，中国智能手机品牌 OnePlus 表示将停止在欧洲和北美推出新产品：https://techcrunch.com/2026/07/16/phone-maker-oneplus-reportedly-plans-to-wind-down-us-and-europe-operations/，同时维持印度业务，此前进行了所谓的仔细评估。与 TechCrunch 分享的 Counterpoint 数据显示，中国在第一季度占 OnePlus 全球智能手机出货量（向分销商和零售商）的比例为 74%，高于一年前的 59%，而印度市场份额则从 30% 降至 19%。
换句话说，OnePlus 正在撤回到仍能获利的市场，并在其他地区放弃市场——这一模式很可能会在其他以预算为主的品牌中重复出现，因为利润率在收紧。
事实上，Pathak告诉TechCrunch，经营多个子品牌只有在每个品牌销售量足以覆盖共享成本时才有意义，一旦利润率变得如此之低，这个计算就行不通了。“子品牌通常会有重叠和共享资源，你需要一个最低基础量来支撑残酷的利润率。盈利能力是决定市场运营的关键，”他说。
这种对品牌的压力正在直接传导到购买他们手机的人身上。IDC移动电话研究副研究总监Kiranjeet Kaur表示，印度智能手机市场正从以销量为主的增长转向价值增长——也就是说，总体手机销量减少，但每部手机产生的收入更多——因为更高的组件成本使低价智能手机越来越不经济。
更高的组件成本已经传导到消费者身上。Pathak表示，印度智能手机价格根据型号上涨了4%到68%不等，随着价格上涨，消费者要么转向更高价的设备，要么推迟升级，或转向二手市场。
与此同时，Kaur告诉TechCrunch，融资已成为“可负担性的核心”。她补充说，品牌和零售商也在节日前储备库存，以在组件价格进一步上涨前锁定较低成本。
Kaur表示，IDC还预计印度智能手机出货量在第二季度将下降两位数，这一降幅比第一季度的4.1%下降和上季度的5.3%下降更为陡峭。然而，她指出公司的预测尚未最终确定。
Kaur告诉TechCrunch，存储短缺和高企的智能手机价格可能会持续到至少2027年底，尽管随着消费者逐渐适应更高价格成为新常态，价格上涨速度应会放缓。
“对于印度消费者来说，这是双重打击，因为货币贬值使进口成本增加，这加大了市场参与者的利润压力，他们将成本转嫁给了消费者，”Kaur说。
当您通过我们文章中的链接进行购买时，我们可能会赚取少量佣金：https://techcrunch.com/techcrunch-affiliate-monetization-standards/。这不影响我们的编辑独立性。
Jagmeet 为 TechCrunch 报道印度的初创企业、科技政策相关更新及所有其他主要的技术相关发展。他曾任NDTV首席记者。
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Months after analysts warned：https://techcrunch.com/2026/02/27/memory-shortage-could-cause-the-biggest-smartphone-shipments-dip-in-over-a-decade/ that AI-driven demand for memory chips would ripple through consumer electronics, India is providing the strongest evidence yet that the disruption has arrived, with rising handset prices reshaping the smartphone market.
The memory chips in question — RAM and storage components — are the same ones tech giants need by the truckload to build AI data centers. Manufacturers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have been shifting production capacity toward high-bandwidth memory, the specialized chips used in AI accelerators, because they’re much more profitable per wafer than the standard memory used in phones and laptops — leaving less capacity, and driving up costs, for everyday consumer electronics.
India, the world’s second-largest smartphone market by shipments after China, saw smartphone shipments fall 10% year-over-year：https://counterpointresearch.com/en/insights/india-smartphone-shipments-fall-10-percent-yoy-june-quarter in the April-June quarter, according to market research firm Counterpoint Research, marking the steepest June-quarter decline in six years as higher memory costs pushed up handset prices.
The impact has been more pronounced in India than in China, where smartphone shipments fell just 2% in Q2, according to Counterpoint. India has been hit harder because about 60% of its smartphone market is concentrated in the sub-₹20,000 (under $210) segment, where higher memory costs have had the biggest impact on prices, Tarun Pathak, the firm’s vice president of research, told TechCrunch.
India has been a prominent market for global smartphone brands for several years. The South Asian nation, home to more than 1.4 billion people and over 700 million smartphone users, has become a bellwether for consumer demand in price-sensitive markets, making shifts in buying patterns closely watched by device makers, chip suppliers, and investors tracking the broader health of the AI supply chain.
Pathak told TechCrunch that consumers are unlikely to abandon smartphones altogether. However, many of them are expected to delay upgrades, stretching replacement cycles to around four years from about 3.5 years previously, while premium brands such as Apple and Samsung remain better insulated from the slowdown.
The uneven impact is already reshaping competition among smartphone makers. Samsung was the only major smartphone brand to post shipment growth in India in Q2, with volumes rising 2% year-over-year, according to Counterpoint. Apple, by contrast, saw shipments fall 3% — though that dip largely reflected supply constraints and inventory shortages limiting how many iPhones Apple could deliver.
Consumers buying higher-end smartphones have proved less sensitive to price increases, with financing making expensive devices more affordable, Prachir Singh, a senior analyst at Counterpoint Research, told TechCrunch.
The pain has been most acute at the lower end of the market. Shipments in the sub-₹15,000 (under $150) segment fell 45% from a year earlier, Counterpoint said. Because Chinese brands are heavily exposed to entry- and mid-tier smartphones, their combined market share fell to its lowest level for a second calendar quarter since 2020.
The tougher economics are also prompting strategic shifts. This week, Chinese smartphone brand OnePlus said it would stop launching new products：https://techcrunch.com/2026/07/16/phone-maker-oneplus-reportedly-plans-to-wind-down-us-and-europe-operations/ in Europe and North America, while maintaining its India business, following what it described as a careful assessment. Counterpoint data shared with TechCrunch showed China accounted for 74% of OnePlus’ global smartphone shipments to distributors and retailers in Q1, up from 59% a year earlier, while India’s share fell to 19% from 30%.
In other words, OnePlus is retreating to markets where it can still turn a profit and ceding ground elsewhere — a pattern likely to repeat across other budget-focused brands as margins tighten.
Indeed, Pathak told TechCrunch that running several sub-brands only makes sense if each one sells enough volume to cover shared costs, and that math stops working once margins get this thin. “Sub-brands normally have overlaps and shared resources, and you need a minimum base to justify the cut-throat margins. Profitability is the key to deciding market operations,” he said.
That pressure on brands is trickling straight down to the people buying their phones. Kiranjeet Kaur, associate research director for mobile phones research at IDC, said the Indian smartphone market is shifting from volume-led growth to value growth — meaning fewer phones are being sold overall, but each one generates more revenue — as higher component costs make lower-priced smartphones increasingly uneconomical.
The higher component costs are already filtering through to consumers. Smartphone prices in India have risen by between 4% and 68%, depending on the model, Pathak said, and as prices rise, consumers are either moving to higher-priced devices, delaying upgrades, or turning to the secondhand market.
Financing has meanwhile become “central to affordability,” Kaur told TechCrunch. She added that brands and retailers were also building inventory ahead of the festive season to lock in lower costs before further increases in component prices.
IDC also expects India’s smartphone shipments to decline by double digits in Q2, a steeper fall than the 4.1% decline in the first quarter and the 5.3% drop in the previous quarter, Kaur said. However, she noted the firm’s estimates were not yet finalized.
Kaur told TechCrunch that memory shortages and elevated smartphone prices were likely to persist until at least the end of 2027, although the pace of price increases should moderate as consumers gradually adjust to higher prices becoming the new normal.
“For Indian consumers, it is a double whammy as the weaker currency makes imports costlier, which has added to margin pressures for the market players, and they are passing on the cost to the consumer,” Kaur said.
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Jagmeet covers startups, tech policy-related updates, and all other major tech-centric developments from India for TechCrunch. He previously worked as a principal correspondent at NDTV.
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