SpaceXAI 单季资本开支 183.7 亿美元，AI 投入接近微软总资本开支四成

SpaceXAI 上一季度的资本支出为 180 亿美元，其中 160 亿用于 AI。1：#fn:1 2：#fn:2

这是一个巨大的数字。上一季度，亚马逊支出 531 亿美元，Alphabet 449 亿美元，微软 410 亿美元，Meta 311 亿美元。3：#fn:3 SpaceXAI 仅在 AI 上的资本支出就几乎占微软总额的 40%。

支出增加的坡度也相当。4：#fn:4

区别在于是谁付钱。微软通过运营资金支持其扩展，还盈余充足，达到资本支出的 155%，Meta 也超过标准 6 个点。其他公司则借贷或发行股票：Oracle 89%，Alphabet 87%，Amazon 84%，CoreWeave 39%，SpaceXAI 12%。5：#fn:5

两类投资者都已下调了该计划的估值。SPCX 于 8 月 5 日收盘价为 108 美元，比 135 美元的 IPO 价低五分之一，也只是 6 月 16 日峰值的一半。6：#fn:6

债权市场也同意这一观点，而且借贷期限越长，同意的程度越高。6 月首次发行的 250 亿美元债券的每一批次都低于票面价值：2031 年到期债券每美元 98 美分，2056 年到期债券每美元 90 美分。7：#fn:7

SpaceXAI 正在努力竞争：它拥有数据中心，已经训练出 Grok 4.5 模型，在智力指数中排名第四，距领先者仅六点之差，8：#fn:8 并且有数百万开发者使用 Cursor。9：#fn:9

IPO 证明公司拥有极佳的资本成本优势。10：#fn:10

现在的问题是，这种优势能否持续足够长的时间，以让 AI 业务达到与其他公司平起平坐的水平。

SpaceX 发布 2026 年第二季度财报：https://s21.q4cdn.com/184289198/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/SpaceX-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results.pdf。各部门资本支出：航天 11.7 亿美元，连接 13.7 亿美元，AI 158.3 亿美元，总计 183.7 亿美元。SpaceX 于 2026 年 6 月 12 日上市，并于 2026 年 8 月 4 日提交了第一份 10-Q 文件，即财报发布当天。↩︎：#fnref:1

CNBC：SpaceX 今日股价，财报：https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/05/spacex-spcx-stock-today-earnings.html。收入为 78.1 亿美元，超过市场共识约 10 亿美元，净亏损缩窄至 5.41 亿美元，而预期为 19 亿美元，但资本支出为 183.7 亿美元，高于预期的 132 亿美元，并指导未来两个季度维持该水平。自 6 月峰值以来，市值已蒸发超过 1 万亿美元，来源 NPR：https://www.npr.org/2026/08/04/nx-s1-5918536/spacex-first-earnings-report-since-ipo。↩︎：#fnref:2

截至2026年6月的季度公司业绩发布。惯例不同，这里未重新调整：亚马逊是净销售收入及激励后计算的，其自身的主报表基准，相对于54.2亿美元的总采购额；Meta包括9.62亿美元的融资租赁本金支付，这些是现金；微软使用其自身的主报表基准，包括融资租赁，并超过其现金流量表上35.8亿美元的物业和设备新增额，差额为非现金使用权资产新增额；Alphabet为现金流量表上的物业和设备采购额。微软的日历第二季度为其2026财年第4季度。 ↩︎：#fnref:3

从2026年第一季度到第二季度季度资本支出的环比增加：Meta 113亿美元，亚马逊 99亿美元，Alphabet 92亿美元，微软 91亿美元，SpaceX 83亿美元。若跨越完整的六个季度来看，则新增额有所差异，亚马逊新增288亿美元，而SpaceX新增156亿美元，因此可比性仅适用于最新季度，而非整个期间。两个SpaceX季度数据是推算而非报告，并以空心点表示，2025年第二季度由报告的同比增长549%反推，2026年第一季度由上半年总额减去第二季度得出。2025年剩余季度无法推算，留空。 ↩︎：#fnref:4

经营活动提供的净现金除以现金流量表中的物业和设备总采购额，这样每家公司均保持现金基准。截止至2026年6月30日的季度：微软554亿美元除以35.8亿美元，Meta 319亿美元除以30.1亿美元，Alphabet 391亿美元除以44.9亿美元，亚马逊454亿美元除以54.2亿美元。有三期数据不同：Oracle为截至2026年5月31日的季度，由全年减去九个月得出，其2027财年第一季度尚未报告；CoreWeave为截至2026年3月31日的季度，其6月季度尚未报告；SpaceXAI为截至2026年6月30日的六个月数据，因为其首份10-Q未包含季度现金流量表。现金资本支出低估了两个公司：CoreWeave排除了46亿美元的OEM融资及应计新增额，使其比例降至24%，SpaceXAI排除了55亿美元的应计费用及39亿美元的其他融资新增额。 ↩︎：#fnref:5

SPCX 每日收盘价来自纳斯达克通过雅虎财经。首次公开募股定价为 2026 年 6 月 11 日的 135 美元，首日收盘价为 160.95 美元。最高收盘价为 6 月 16 日的 211.39 美元。第二季度财报于 8 月 4 日收盘后发布，股票在下一交易日下跌 13.6%，从 125.33 美元跌至 108.27 美元，而盘中报告的跌幅为 10%。↩︎：#fnref:6

价格为 2026 年 8 月 5 日收盘价，每 100 美元本金的美分：2031 年到期 5.350% 为 97.67，2033 年到期 5.650% 为 96.49，2036 年到期 5.875% 为 94.91，2046 年到期 6.600% 为 91.16，2056 年到期 6.650% 为 89.72。后四个为 FINRA TRACE 成交数据；2031 年的票据无 TRACE 报价，为法兰克福价格，不同的交易场所与交易时段。到期收益率从 2031 年票据的 5.86% 到 2056 年票据的 7.51%。SpaceX 披露：https://ir.spacex.com/updates/releases-details/2026/SpaceX-Announces-Pricing-of-25-Billion-Inaugural-Bond-Issuance-2026-33VwNgsx3O/default.aspx 票息和规模，但未披露发行价，因此折价是相对于面值计算；唯一报告的发行价为 2056 年票据的 99.45，这意味着相对于发行价的损失略小于一个百分点。25 亿美元的债券于 2026 年 6 月 23 日定价，订单近 890 亿美元，结算于 6 月 26 日。↩︎：#fnref:7

Artificial Analysis：https://artificialanalysis.ai。Grok 4.5 于 2026 年 7 月 8 日发布，在智能指数上得分 54，相比 Fable 5 得分 60，Opus 4.8 得分 56，GPT-5.5 得分 55。总体推理能力最接近，而编码能力差距最大，其中 Grok 4.5 在 SWE-bench Pro 上得分 64.7%，而 Claude Mythos 5 得分 80.3%。Grok 4.5 未在 LMArena 的主文本榜单上排名。↩︎：#fnref:8

Cursor：D 轮融资：https://cursor.com/blog/series-d，2025 年 11 月 13 日，为“数百万开发者”。SpaceX 同意于 2026 年 6 月 16 日以 600 亿美元股票收购 Anysphere，需等待监管批准。无论是 2026 年 5 月 20 日的 S-1 文件，描述了 Cursor 合作并披露了 Cursor 的资产负债表，还是 6 月 16 日的 8-K 报告，都未披露任何用户、席位或客户指标。全股票对价是根据私募豁免发行的，因此不会有后续的 S-4 或代理文件。↩︎：#fnref:9

你的个人资本成本：https://tomtunguz.com/personal-cost-of-capital/。首发上市筹集了大约857亿美元的净收益，随后发行了250亿美元的债券，根据首席财务官Bret Johnsen在财报电话会议上的说法，季度末现金和可流通证券余额为1000亿美元。↩︎：#fnref:10

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Theory Ventures的普通合伙人。前谷歌产品经理。分享关于人工智能、Web3和风险投资的数据驱动见解。

彭博社：https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-30/google-places-ads-inside-chatbot-conversations-with-ai-startups • 华尔街日报：https://www.wsj.com/tech/tech-media-telecom-roundup-market-talk-f8f0355a • 经济学人：https://www.economist.com/business/2023/07/25/next-generation-googles-run-a-tighter-ship

SpaceXAI spent $18b of capex last quarter, $16b of it on AI. 1：#fn:1 2：#fn:2

It’s a huge number. Amazon spent $53.1b last quarter, Alphabet $44.9b, Microsoft $41.0b, Meta $31.1b. 3：#fn:3 SpaceXAI’s AI capex alone is nearly 40% of Microsoft’s total.

The slope of spending increase is comparable, too. 4：#fn:4

The difference is who pays for it. Microsoft funds its buildout from operations with room to spare at 155% of capex, & Meta clears the bar by six points. Everyone else borrows or issues equity : Oracle 89%, Alphabet 87%, Amazon 84%, CoreWeave 39%, SpaceXAI 12%. 5：#fn:5

Both sets of investors have marked the plan down. SPCX closed at $108 on 5 August, a fifth below the $135 IPO price & half the 16 June peak. 6：#fn:6

Credit agrees, & the further out it lent the more it agrees. Every tranche of June’s $25b debut bond trades below par : the 2031s at 98 cents on the dollar, the 2056s at 90. 7：#fn:7

SpaceXAI is pushing to compete : it has the data centers, it has trained a model in Grok 4.5 that ranks fourth on the Intelligence Index within six points of the leader, 8：#fn:8 & it has millions of developers using Cursor. 9：#fn:9

The IPO proved the company has a great cost of capital advantage. 10：#fn:10

The question now is whether that advantage can sustain long enough for the AI business to reach parity with the others.

SpaceX Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results：https://s21.q4cdn.com/184289198/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/SpaceX-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results.pdf. Capex by segment : Space $1.17b, Connectivity $1.37b & AI $15.83b, for a total of $18.37b. SpaceX listed on 12 June 2026 & filed its first 10-Q on 4 August 2026, the same day as the results release. ↩︎：#fnref:1

CNBC : SpaceX stock today, earnings：https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/05/spacex-spcx-stock-today-earnings.html. Revenue of $7.81b beat consensus by about $1b & the net loss narrowed to $541m against the $1.9b expected, but capex of $18.37b landed against a $13.2b estimate with guidance to hold that level two more quarters. More than $1t of market value has gone since the June peak, per NPR：https://www.npr.org/2026/08/04/nx-s1-5918536/spacex-first-earnings-report-since-ipo. ↩︎：#fnref:2

Company results releases for the quarter ended June 2026. The conventions differ & are not restated here : Amazon is net of proceeds from sales and incentives, its own headline basis, against gross purchases of $54.2b; Meta includes $962m of principal payments on finance leases, which are cash; Microsoft is its own headline basis including finance leases & runs above the $35.8b of additions to property and equipment on its cash flow statement, the difference being non-cash right-of-use asset additions; Alphabet is purchases of property and equipment from the cash flow statement. Microsoft’s calendar Q2 is its fiscal Q4 2026. ↩︎：#fnref:3

Sequential increase in quarterly capex from Q1 2026 to Q2 2026 : Meta $11.3b, Amazon $9.9b, Alphabet $9.2b, Microsoft $9.1b & SpaceX $8.3b. Measured across the full six quarters the additions diverge, with Amazon adding $28.8b against SpaceX’s $15.6b, so the comparability holds for the latest quarter rather than for the period. Two SpaceX quarters are derived rather than reported & are drawn as hollow points, Q2 2025 back-solved from the reported 549% year-over-year increase & Q1 2026 from the first-half total less Q2. The remaining 2025 quarters are not derivable & are left blank. ↩︎：#fnref:4

Net cash provided by operating activities divided by gross purchases of property and equipment, both from the cash flow statement, which keeps the basis cash for every company. Quarter ended 30 June 2026 : Microsoft $55.4b over $35.8b, Meta $31.9b over $30.1b, Alphabet $39.1b over $44.9b & Amazon $45.4b over $54.2b. Three periods differ : Oracle is the quarter ended 31 May 2026, derived as the full year less nine months, with fiscal Q1 2027 not yet reported; CoreWeave the quarter ended 31 March 2026, its June quarter not yet reported; & SpaceXAI the six months ended 30 June 2026, since its first 10-Q carries no quarterly cash flow statement. Cash capex understates two : CoreWeave excludes $4.6b of OEM-financed & accrued additions, which would cut it to 24%, & SpaceXAI excludes $5.5b in accruals & $3.9b financed by other financings. ↩︎：#fnref:5

SPCX daily closing prices from Nasdaq via Yahoo Finance. The IPO priced at $135 on 11 June 2026 & closed its first session at $160.95. The highest close was $211.39 on 16 June. Q2 results came after the close on 4 August & the shares fell 13.6% the next session, from $125.33 to $108.27, against the 10% reported intraday. ↩︎：#fnref:6

Prices are the 5 August 2026 close, cents per $100 of principal : 5.350% due 2031 at 97.67, 5.650% due 2033 at 96.49, 5.875% due 2036 at 94.91, 6.600% due 2046 at 91.16 & 6.650% due 2056 at 89.72. The last four are FINRA TRACE prints; the 2031 tranche has no TRACE quote & is a Frankfurt price, a different venue & session. Yields to maturity run from 5.86% on the 2031s to 7.51% on the 2056s. SpaceX disclosed：https://ir.spacex.com/updates/releases-details/2026/SpaceX-Announces-Pricing-of-25-Billion-Inaugural-Bond-Issuance-2026-33VwNgsx3O/default.aspx coupons & sizes but no issue prices, so the discounts are measured against par; the one reported issue price, 99.45 on the 2056s, means the loss against issue is a fraction of a point smaller. The $25b priced 23 June 2026 on nearly $89b of orders & settled 26 June. ↩︎：#fnref:7

Artificial Analysis：https://artificialanalysis.ai. Grok 4.5 shipped 8 July 2026 & scores 54 on the Intelligence Index against Fable 5 at 60, Opus 4.8 at 56 & GPT-5.5 at 55. The parity is closest on general reasoning & widest on coding, where Grok 4.5 records 64.7% on SWE-bench Pro against Claude Mythos 5 at 80.3%. Grok 4.5 is not ranked on LMArena’s main text board. ↩︎：#fnref:8

Cursor : Series D：https://cursor.com/blog/series-d, 13 November 2025, for “millions of developers.” SpaceX agreed to acquire Anysphere for $60b in stock on 16 June 2026, pending regulatory approval. Neither the 20 May 2026 S-1, which describes the Cursor collaboration & discloses Cursor’s balance sheet, nor the 16 June 8-K reports any user, seat or customer metric. The all-stock consideration was issued under a private-placement exemption, so no S-4 or proxy will follow. ↩︎：#fnref:9

Your Personal Cost of Capital：https://tomtunguz.com/personal-cost-of-capital/. The IPO raised approximately $85.7b in net proceeds & was followed by the $25b bond, leaving $100b of cash & marketable securities at quarter end, per CFO Bret Johnsen on the earnings call. ↩︎：#fnref:10

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Bloomberg：https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-30/google-places-ads-inside-chatbot-conversations-with-ai-startups • WSJ：https://www.wsj.com/tech/tech-media-telecom-roundup-market-talk-f8f0355a • Economist：https://www.economist.com/business/2023/07/25/next-generation-googles-run-a-tighter-ship