GPT 5.6 折扣与杰文斯悖论：OpenRouter 数据揭示 Terra/Luna 降价如何引爆 token 用量

OpenAI 在 7 月 27 日至 8 月 14 日期间对其新的 Terra 和 Luna 模型推出了大幅折扣。这些折扣对代币使用量、总支出以及竞争情况产生了什么影响？

当 GPT 5.6 折扣生效的那一刻，代币使用量猛增。

如果将项目内的代币使用量与折扣前的日均值进行比较，效果一目了然：Terra 代币增长了 5.6 倍，Luna 增长了 13.8 倍。未打折的 Sol 模型仅略微增长 1.11 倍，而其他 OpenAI 模型的代币使用量实际上略有下降。在 OpenAI 系列之外的其他模型则略有上升。

在折扣前周期和项目期间，Terra/Luna 在所有 OpenRouter 代币中从 0.7% 增至 7.8%，增加了 7.1 个份额点。所有竞争对手合并在浅灰色部分，每种颜色堆栈上方的标签显示的是 OpenAI 系列的综合份额（Terra + Luna + Sol + 其他 OpenAI）。

竞争对手损失了 5.3 个份额点，其他 OpenAI 模型损失了 1.9 个份额点，因此大约四分之三的增长来自 OpenAI 之外。在整个 OpenAI 系列中，代币份额从 7.1% 增长到 12.4%，在折扣期间的特定日子甚至偶尔超过 15%。

关键模型发布者的代币使用量大多上升，但 Anthropic 在此期间并未增长。OpenAI 的代币使用量平均几乎翻倍，并在折扣项目结束后维持在较高水平。

显然，折扣在项目期间推动了代币使用量的增加，但这些用户在折扣结束后是否继续使用呢？

在项目期间使用 Terra/Luna 的超过 10 万名客户中，大约 32% 在随后几天仍保有一定使用量，18% 的使用量维持在项目期间的水平或更高。需要说明的是，这是客户数量统计，而非按代币加权计算。显然，项目后的统计周期比整个折扣期要短得多（目前 6 天 vs 19 天项目期），因此随着更多数据的到来，情况可能会有所变化。

如果改为观察每日 Terra/Luna 代币使用量，项目后的平均代币使用量为折扣期间的 1.38 倍，这意味着保留账户的规模远大于项目期间的中位用户。

在Terra/Luna项目期间，Sol的日均处理量为79.1B代币，而前期为71.2B/天，控制组基本持平。

然而，上图中从8月17日开始的阴影区域是Sol自身的50%折扣。Sol立即跳升，重现了Terra/Luna的模式。

OpenAI introduced large discounts on their new Terra and Luna models from July 27th through August 14th. What impact did these discounts have on token volumes, total spend, and the competition?

The moment GPT 5.6 discounts kicked in, the token volume exploded.

If you compare the in-program token usage to the pre-period daily averages, the effect is crystal clear: Terra tokens rose 5.6x and Luna 13.8x. The Sol model, which remained un-discounted, saw a minor 1.11x bump while other OpenAI models actually fell slightly in tokens used. Outside the OpenAI family, the other models rose gently.

Terra/Luna went from 0.7% to 7.8% of all OpenRouter tokens between the pre-period and the program, a gain of 7.1 share points. All competitors are pooled into the light-grey segment, and the label above each color stack is the combined OpenAI-family share (Terra + Luna + Sol + other OpenAI).

Competitors gave up 5.3 points and other OpenAI models gave up 1.9 points over the same comparison, so roughly three quarters of the gain came from outside OpenAI. Across the whole OpenAI family, token share grew from 7.1% to 12.4% and occasionally crested over 15% in specific days during the discount period.

Tokens mostly rose across key model authors, though Anthropic did not in this timeframe. OpenAI token volume nearly doubled on average and has maintained that higher level after the discount program ended.

Clearly the discounts drove increased token usage during the program period, but did those users stick around after the discounts had ended?

Of the 100K+ customers with Terra/Luna usage during the program, about 32% retained some usage in the subsequent days and 18% ran at or above their program pace. To be clear, this is a count of customers, not weighted by tokens. Obviously the post-program period is quite a bit shorter than the full discount timeframe (6 days so far vs a 19-day program), so the story may change as more data comes in.

If you look instead at the daily Terra/Luna token volume, the post-program period saw 1.38x the tokens of the discount period on average, which implies the retained accounts are far larger than the median program user.

Sol averaged 79.1B tokens/day during the Terra/Luna program against 71.2B/day pre-period, an effectively flat control group.

However, the shaded region in the chart above from Aug 17 onward is Sol’s own 50% discount. Sol jumps immediately, reproducing the Terra/Luna pattern.