How does the market value an AI harness?

We now have enough data points to draw some initial conclusions. Harvey, Legora & Sierra each announced crossing $100m in annual recurring revenue within nine months of each other, & Ramp & Decagon bracket them at $1.4b & $35m. 1：#fn:1

The answer varies between 25-125x current ARR at scale, with multiples increasing recently still further.

Post-money valuation against ARR on log scales for five companies, with dashed lines marking constant multiples from 10x to 200x & each company's rounds connected in sequence

These are among the fastest growing businesses at scale. The dashed lines above show multiple bands ; amazingly, each company seems to trade within just one or two bands, despite significant growth in ARR. 2：#fn:2 Typically, multiples compress with scale.

Valuation divided by ARR from December 2024 to June 2026 for Ramp, Harvey, Legora, Sierra & Decagon, with multiples marking back up in 2026 & Harvey the exception

In January of 2026, we can see the acceleration of multiples for Legora, Sierra, & Ramp. Some of this may be due to sustained acceleration (Databricks’ is another example of this) ; another component, a more favorable fundraising market.

In 2021, I wrote about the 100x ARR multiple, 3：#fn:3 a premium valuation for private startups & public companies. Five years later, we’re back at those levels, but the growth underneath is about 3x faster.

The revenue figures behind both charts combine company statements with public extrapolations, so there is meaningful error in these estimates. Nine of the fifteen observations come from a company announcement or a founder post ; the rest are third-party estimates filling the gaps between disclosures. Sub-$100m figures are estimates in every case. Treat the direction of each line as the finding rather than the precise level. ↩︎：#fnref:2

The 100x ARR Multiple：https://tomtunguz.com/100x-arr/, November 4, 2021. ↩︎：#fnref:3

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GP at Theory Ventures. Former Google PM. Sharing data-driven insights on AI, web3, & venture capital.

Bloomberg：https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-30/google-places-ads-inside-chatbot-conversations-with-ai-startups • WSJ：https://www.wsj.com/tech/tech-media-telecom-roundup-market-talk-f8f0355a • Economist：https://www.economist.com/business/2023/07/25/next-generation-googles-run-a-tighter-ship