甲骨文与OpenAI的3000亿美元交易后股价暴跌，市场对循环融资模式失去信心

九个月前，即2025年9月10日，甲骨文宣布了一项被许多人视为世纪交易的协议：https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/10/technology/openai-oracle-data-centers-deal.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share！与OpenAI达成了3000亿美元的交易。

市场疯狂波动。甲骨文股票短暂上涨了43％（最终甚至更高）。拉里·埃里森的净资产短暂增加了1000亿美元。《华尔街日报》赞叹道：

不过，这整个事情从来没有道理可言。第二天早上，在一篇题为“峰值泡沫”的文章中：https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/peak-bubble?utm_source=publication-search，我警告说

但没过多久。9月10日收盘时其股价为每股307美元，十天后最高短暂达到328美元。现在，当我写下这些时，它徘徊在约120美元。

在这九个月的时间里，市场对这些循环融资的事情越来越谨慎。像这样的恶搞插图（取自昨天）已经广泛传播：

这一切把我引到了现在。昨天，有消息称英伟达正在考虑为OpenAI主导的数据中心提供2500亿美元的支撑。这导致昨晚出现了相当多的怀疑

而今天早上，市场反应则截然不同，完全不像甲骨文在九月份那样的反弹。相反，在交易的前几个小时，英伟达下跌超过4.5％：

市场并不把最新的潜在英伟达-OpenAI交易视为好消息；他们把它看作是一种绝望。正如一位投资者今天早上在给我发的一封电子邮件中所说，“[这笔交易]看起来双方都非常绝望。两个醉汉靠在一起才能站起来。”

与此同时，苹果曾一度因为“投资AI不够”而成为笑柄，现在刚刚超过了英伟达

而试图把自己定位为AI公司的SpaceX正自由下跌，今日跌幅超过3%，过去一个月下跌超过25%，比6月的225美元高点跌幅超过50%：

与此同时，债权人对整个事情也变得相当谨慎，Axios刚刚报道：https://stocks.apple.com/A1ZnlGyRuQvig2ze-8Q8CNg：

然后，还有所有浮出水面的表外融资：https://x.com/hedgiemarkets/status/2079335039720952144?s=61。以及所谓“创意融资”的突然需求：https://www.theinformation.com/articles/ai-financing-gets-creative?rc=dcf9pt&shared=0c719478871b7a58。如果这还不是一个警告信号，我就不知道什么才是。

生成式人工智能的热潮并非由利润支撑，而是靠希望和循环融资维持。而这很可能不再足够。

循环融资将变成循环自伤。

O'Reilly 昨晚告诉特朗普休息一个月……情况确实糟糕至此……

所有的坏事都自食其果……

Nine months ago, on September 10, 2025 Oracle announced what seemed to many to be the deal of the century：https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/10/technology/openai-oracle-data-centers-deal.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share ! A $300 billion deal with OpenAI.

The market went wild. Oracle stock briefly went up by 43% (and ultimately even a bit higher). Larry Ellison’s net worth briefly leapt by $100 billion. The Wall St. Journal gushed:

The whole thing never made sense though. The next morning, inn an essay called Peak Bubble：https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/peak-bubble?utm_source=publication-search I warned that

But not for long. Its stock stood at $307 per share at the close of trading on September 10, and briefly closed as high as $328 ten days later. Now, as I write this, it’s hovering around $120.

In the intervening nine months, the market has grown wary of all this circular financing stuff. Mocking illustrations like this one (from yesterday) have become widespread:

All of which brings me to the present. Yesterday, news broke that Nvidia is considering offering a $250 billion backstop for an OpenAI-led data center. Which led last night to considerable skepticism

and this morning led to a dramatically different reaction from the market, nothing like the bounce like Oracle had back in September. Instead, in the first couple hours of trading Nvidia is down over 4.5%:

The market isn’t reading the latest potential Nvidia-OpenAI deal as good news; they are reading it as desperation. As one investor put it to me in an email this morning, “[the deal] seems incredibly desperate by both parties. Two drunks leaning on each other to stand up.”

Meanwhile, Apple, the butt of jokes for a while because “it didn’t invest in enough AI” just overtook Nvidia

and SpaceX, which tried to position itself as an AI company is in free fall, dropping over 3% today, and by over 25% in the last month, more than 50% from its June high of 225:

Meanwhile, creditors are getting pretty leery of the whole thing, too, as Axios just reported：https://stocks.apple.com/A1ZnlGyRuQvig2ze-8Q8CNg :

And then there’s all the off-balance-sheet financing that is coming to light：https://x.com/hedgiemarkets/status/2079335039720952144?s=61 . And the sudden need for so-called “ creative financing：https://www.theinformation.com/articles/ai-financing-gets-creative?rc=dcf9pt&shared=0c719478871b7a58 ”. If that’s not a warning sign, I don’t know what is.

The GenAI boom hasn’t been sustained by profits; it has been sustained by hope and circular financing. That may no longer be enough.

Circular financing will become a circular firing squad

O'Reilly last night telling trump to take a month off ... it is that bad ...

all chickens coming home to roost ...